The College Football Playoff Committee released its first Top 25 rankings on November 2, with big differences from my list.
The Committee is mostly choosing what it believes are the best teams, while I'm ranking the most deserving teams. (That's one reason why, for instance, the Committee has some 3-loss teams on their list and I have none.) I do think the Committee's rankings and mine will be in agreement (at least for the Top Four) by the time of the final pre-playoff rankings. There are a lot of big games and upset losses still to be had.
The most important difference between the lists is Oregon. I have the Ducks 12th; the Committee has them fourth. I can't, however, believe the Committee really believes Oregon is the fourth-best team. They have the worst loss among all one-loss Power 5 teams. Their overall strength of schedule is worse than Cincinnati's, so the Committee can't use that as an excuse to elevate Oregon and downgrade the Bearcats. And they haven't been steamrolling over their opponents the way, say, Georgia does most Saturdays.
I did spot one advantage for Oregon: they have one of the best wins of the season (over otherwise-undefeated Ohio State) and they have another quality win, over 7-2 Fresno State. Few other teams have more than one "big" win, although I suspect the Committee is arbitrarily choosing when a win over a non-Power 5 team (such as Fresno State) is impressive, and when it's not.
If the college football fans suspect conspiracy in the Committee to a) keep the Playoff within the Power 5 conferences, and b) maintain nationwide interest in the playoff race, including the West Coast, I can't say I'd blame them.
Passer Rating vs QBR
I'm continuing data collection on the role of passer rating (PR) in NFL victories. In Week 8, teams with the higher passer rating went 10-4.
When the PR differential was greater than 50, they were 1-0.
When the differential was between 25 and 50, they were 3-0 with two games decided by two or more possessions. The one-possession game went into overtime.
When the differential was between 0 and 25, they were 6-4. Two of the wins were by two or more possessions. Two of the losses were also by two or more possessions.
For all the season's games to date, the team with a PR advantage of:
50+ points is 24-1
25-50 is 39-4
0-25 is 32-21
Overall, teams with the higher PR are 95-26.
Eleven of the top 16 quarterbacks in PR have winning records, compared to twelve of the top 16 in QBR. 12 of the top 16 teams in defensive passer ratings have winning records, with three others three at 4-4.
Keep in mind that there are only 13 teams with winning records. Eleven of the twelve are above-average in PR, and twelve are above average in defensive PR.
WEEK 9 Picks
In Week 8 I was 10-5 against the CBS Sports spread, and 10-5 straight-up.
For the "year" which only means the past three weeks, I'm 23-19 against the spread, 30-12 straight-up.
I'm making my picks at CBS Sports based on whether my victory margins predicted here are higher or lower than CBS's pointspreads. I'll report my results next week.
Colts vs. Jets: Colts by 3
Vikings vs. Ravens: Vikings by 3
Patriots vs. Panthers: Patriots by 4
Bengals vs. Browns: Bengals by 5
Cowboys vs. Broncos: Cowboys by 1
Bills vs. Jaguars: Bills by 11
Texans vs. Dolphins: Texans by 1
Saints vs. Falcons: Saints by 7
Raiders vs. Giants: Raiders by 4
Chargers vs. Eagles: Chargers by 5
Packers vs. Chiefs: Packers by 5
Cardinals vs. 49ers: Cardinals by 6
Titans vs. Rams: Rams by 6
Steelers vs. Bears: Steelers by 3
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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