The College Football Playoff Selection Committee is releasing its first Top 25 ranking on Tuesday, November 2. They should just copy my list (below). To be on the list, a team must:
Win a lot, and beat teams that themselves win a lot.
Win convincingly, which is by 9 or more points each game; when a team wins by two possessions or more, it's less controversial because no single bad call or fluke play determines victory. (I do not otherwise bring margin of victory into account.)
Lose only by small margins to teams that themselves rarely lose. (I DO take margin of loss into account.)
As I noted last week, the reason teams with a loss would be ranked ahead of undefeated teams is largely due to schedule strength. And although I didn't deliberately order the teams this way, it turns out the Power 5-status teams with one loss happen to be ranked in order of the quality of the loss.
Michigan lost by 4 to undefeated Michigan State
Notre Dame lost by 11 to undefeated Cincinnati.
Ohio State lost by 7 to one-loss Oregon.
Baylor lost by 10 to one-loss Oklahoma State.
Alabama lost by 3 to 2-loss Texas A&M.
Oklahoma State lost by 3 to 3-loss Iowa State.
Oregon lost by 7 to 5-loss Stanford
The other one-loss teams, San Diego State (#18), Houston (#22), Coastal Carolina (#25), SMU (unranked) and Louisiana (unranked) were in the bottom 30 in strength-of-schedule (as of October 24).
Since last week, the number of undefeated teams fell from nine to six. Most have four games to go, not to mention conference championship games. I wouldn't be surprised if nobody's undefeated five weeks from today. I also wouldn't be surprised if Georgia, Cincinnati, and Wake Forest are undefeated. Michigan State and Oklahoma would surprise me if they are.
Unless most teams end up with two losses, I'm not seeing a path for UTSA to get in the playoffs even if they go 13-0.
Here's the list.
Georgia 8-0
Cincinnati 8-0
Michigan State 8-0
Michigan 7-1
Notre Dame 7-1
Ohio State 7-1
Wake Forest 8-0
Baylor 7-1
Alabama 7-1
Oklahoma 9-0
Oklahoma State 7-1
Oregon 7-1
BYU 7-2
UTSA 8-0
Air Force 6-2
Auburn 6-2
Fresno State 7-2
San Diego State 7-1
Appalachian State 6-2
Texas A&M 6-2
Iowa 6-2
Houston 7-1
Kentucky 6-2
Minnesota 6-2
Coastal Carolina 7-1
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
For Wilson's insights into the news, society, and spirituality, subscribe to JLCells.