In Week 7, I was 7-6 against the CBS line, and 10-3 straight up.
For Week 8, I'm making my picks at CBS Sports based on whether my victory margins are higher or lower than CBS's pointspreads. I'll report the results next week.
Packers v Cardinals: Cardinals by 1
Panthers v Falcons: Falcons by 2
Titans v Colts: Titans by 1
Dolphins v Bills; Bills by 8
Bengals v Jets: Bengals by 8
Browns v Steelers: Browns by 3
Eagles v Lions: Eagles by 2
Rams v Texans: Rams by 10
49ers v Bears: 49ers by 1
Patriots v Chargers: Patriots by 3
Seahawks v Jaguars: Seahawks by 5
Buccaneers v Saints: Buccaneers by 3
Washington v Broncos: Broncos by 5
Cowboys v Vikings: Cowboys by 1
Giants v Chiefs: Chiefs by 1
And now, continuing my study on Passer Rating…
In Week 7, the team with a high passer rating (PR) were 10-3.
When the PR differential was 50+ points, they were 2-0 and won both games by 9+ (two or more) possessions.
When the PR was 25-50, they were 7-0 with all games by 9+ possessions with all games decided by 9+ points.
When the PR was between 0-25, they were 1-3. The lone victory was by 9+ points. The 3 losses were by 3 points or fewer.
For the season to date, the team with a PR advantage of:
50+ is 23-1
25-50 is 36-4
0-25 is 26-17
As demonstrated last week, passer rating is even more determinative than turnovers in determining victory. But the differences are not so clear-cut when the differential is small. To win consistently, the quarterback must not only pass efficiently, but the defense must make the opposing passer inefficient.
Ten of the top 16 QBs in PR have winning records and 4 have losing records. Twelve of the top 16 in QBR have winning records, and three have losing records.
Next week I'll dive deeper into defensive passer rating stats.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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