Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 Associated Press's NFL MVP award Thursday (February 10, 2022), taking 39 of 50 first-place votes. Tom Brady received ten votes, and Cooper Kupp got one.
Kupp was the winner of my MVP Chase. The MVP Chase was based on a points system. To earn an MVP point, a player must have a passer rating of 97.0 or higher, or have gained 70 or more yards from scrimmage, in a victory or tie.
I believed the award would go to a player from a team that won a lot of games, and who played well in those games. My hypothesis was that the leader in MVP points would win the AP's award, or be a top candidate, even if the voters aren't aware of these standards I set.
Nine players earned nine or more MVP Points in my MVP Chase, with seven coming from just three teams: Rams, Packers, and Buccaneers. These teams were also in the top three in most wins. The voters seemed to select the "most valuable" from each team.
Kupp (12 MVP points) from the Rams won the MVP Chase..
Rodgers (10 points) of the Packers was tied for fourth with teammate Davante Adams and one point behind teammate Aaron Jones and the Rams's Matthew Stafford.
Brady (9 points) tied with teammate Leonard Fournette, Jonathan Taylor of the Colts, and Deebo Samuel of the 49ers.
Jones and Fournette were never realistically in contention, as they were important but not sensational run-catch backs for their teams. Unless a back or receiver is sensational, his quarterback is usually going to get more credit as the distributor of the ball. And Brady, the league's most prolific passer, distributed the ball well enough for the Bucs to average nearly 30 points per game, second in the league. That's probably why he got ten MVP votes.
Rodgers gets more credit than Adams, who in any case was 22 catches and nearly 400 yards behind Kupp in season totals. Kupp, however, got more credit than his QB Stafford in part because Stafford led the league with 17 interceptions.
Rodgers led the league in passer rating, which probably gave him the nod over the other candidates. He probably also won the "eyeball" test; most days, he looked like the best quarterback in a league that has several very good ones.
In my opinion, however, Rodgers wasn't that much better than the rest. Several of the ten-best quarterbacks were matched with one of the ten best receivers and also with one of the ten-best head coaches. I think if you shuffled these quarterbacks, receivers, and coaches, they all would still have been successful.
And that's where, in my mind, Kupp stands apart. He was much more productive than any other receiver, week in and week out, and (according to my methodology) he was more instrumental to more wins than Rodgers. I think several other quarterbacks could have led the Packers to a 13-4 record, but no other receiver would have gotten the Rams to 12-5.
Kupp's consolation is being named Offensive Player of the Year. He earned the honor.
If I'm to do this again next season, I would tweak a few things. In addition to passer rating, I would consider fumbles and sacks to help determine whether a quarterback had a good game. And, I would probably consider fumbles and raise the bar for yards from scrimmage for backs and receivers, probably to 85. I might also consider adding touchdowns to the consideration.
And, I might develop a plan for defensive and special teams players having extraordinary seasons on winning teams.
But, I don't want to make this overly-complicated, and I'm not budging from the core principle: the MVP shouldn't go to the "best" player, but to the player who played a major role in the most victories. Having great statistics in a loss ought to help one's Pro Bowl and All-Pro candidacy, but it shouldn't help one's MVP case.
We all know that the Super Bowl MVP will go to a member of the winning team. That's because in team sports, value comes in helping the team win. And that's what the MVP Chase is all about.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!