Here are my NFL first round playoff predictions.
I made my picks first, then looked up the latest Vegas line as of Wednesday morning, January 12 via CBS Sports. For those new to this, when the line says something like "Bills -4" it means the Bills are favored by 4.
In three of the games, my picks are right in line with Vegas. In the three where I'm significantly off, the data I used to make predictions are in alignment with what my gut said without using data.
AFC
Raiders @ Bengals, Bengals by 6 LINE: Bengals -5.5
Patriots @ Bills, Bills by 4 LINE: Bills -4
Steelers @ Chiefs, Chiefs by 8 LINE Chiefs -12.5
NFC
Eagles @ Buccaneers, Buccaneers by 4 LINE Buccaneers -8.5
49ers @ Cowboys, Cowboys by 3 LINE Cowboys -3
Cardinals @ Rams, Rams by 1 LINE Rams -4
NFL MVP CHASE
As I've mentioned several times in previous weeks, to earn an MVP point, a player must have a passer rating of 97.0 or higher, or have gained 70 or more yards from scrimmage, in a victory or tie.
Because the Rams and Packers lost, there was no movement at the top of the MVP Chase from last week. Cooper Kupp has won the MVP Chase outright.
But will he be named MVP?
Last week, I created an alternate MVP list upping the standards to a 105.0 passer rating or 100 yards from scrimmage. Three players tied for the lead with nine:
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (12-5)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (13-4)
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (9-8)
They all lost their last game, and no one behind them moved up to join them. I suspect Rodgers will get the nod as he led the league in overall passer rating and led the Packers to a #1 seed and best record in the NFL.
Kupp will probably get plenty of votes, however, for having one of the great seasons a wide receiver has ever had. Taylor, who gained even more yards than Kupp, saw his chances diminish as the Colts lost their last two games and missed the playoffs.
Later on, likely after the actual MVP vote is announced, I'll reflect on the experiment that was the 2021 MVP Chase, but for now here are the top finishers.
TWELVE MVP POINTS
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (12-5)
ELEVEN MVP POINTS
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (13-4)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (12-5)
TEN MVP POINTS
Davante Adams, WR, Packers (13-4)
Aaron Rodgers, Packers, (13-4)
NINE MVP POINTS
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (13-4)
Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers (13-4)
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (10-7)
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (9-8)
EIGHT MVP POINTS
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (10-7)
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (9-8)
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (12-5)
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (11-6)
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you enjoy his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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