I explained the NBA MVP Chase back in December. Like the NFL MVP Chase, I was determined to find a system that rewarded contributions to victories.
But I've been bothered that role players were ranking high in the NBA MVP Chase just because they were regular starters on winning teams
Like in the NFL, the NBA MVP should look at offensive skill, and not go to defensive-minded role players who put in minutes and get a high +/-. To weed out the role players who were getting almost identical win and +/ totals to the actual best players, I've decided to add John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Ratio (PER) into the mix.
The new formula is simple. A player's MVP Chase score is:
PER + Minutes per game (MPG) plus Games Won (GW; number of victories in which the player participated, NOT total team victories).
More concisely, PER + MPG + GW.
PER summarizes a player's skill, MPG summarizes the value the player's own coach places on him, and GW indicates how often the team actually wins when he plays.
Here is the current Top Ten as of 02/11/2022. The number by each player is the sum of their PER+ MPG+ GW.
Chris Paul, Suns, 100.7
Steph Curry, Warriors, 95.3
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 94.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 94.3
Devin Booker, Suns, 94.0
Joel Embiid, 76ers, 93.4
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls, 92.8
Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers, 89.0
Rudy Gobert, Jazz, 87.1
Kevin Durant, Nets, 86.6
With the season two-thirds over (around 25-27 games left for most teams), we can safely assume the players 8th-10th place are out of the picture, but the rest certainly have a shot at making the MVP ballot, which has five names ranked in order of preference.
It would seem that something's amiss with the order. Jokic, Giannis, and Embiid lead the NBA in PER; Curry is 20th, Paul is 24th, and Booker's 33rd. On the other hand,
Jokic's Nuggets are 15 games out of first place; his personal productivity is carrying the team only so far. They're on pace to go 45-37; last year, (with ten fewer games in the season) they were 47-25.
Giannis has missed ten games.
Embiid has missed twelve games.
In contrast,
Paul has missed no games.
Curry has missed only five games.
Derozan has missed four games.
Booker has missed eight games.
It could be argued that, if not for being out so many games, Giannis and Embiid would have their teams solidly ahead of the Heat and Bulls in the East. They might be right there with Paul leading the MVP Chase.
But that's the point. The reason Paul has had a much better season than the others, and why his team has a comfortable lead in the West, is because he's been able to play every game. That's not dumb luck.
Staying healthy and ready to play is a skill in itself during a grueling season. The MVP shouldn't be about "what might have been" if so-and-so played more games or had better teammates. It should, instead, go to a player who actually helps his team win real games.
That said, we still have a ways to go. I'm not giving the MVP to Chris Paul just yet.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!