In this Issue of the MVP Chase:
NFL Power Rankings
Week 11 NFL picks
Week 10 passer rating update
Power Rankings
Here are the NFL Power Rankings as we approach Week 11. I have adjusted my methods a little from last week, in which I was looking at a team's performance on the season as a whole. I've narrowed the focus to recent games and how each team is trending.
Titans 8-2
Patriots 6-4
Packers 8-2
Colts 5-5
Buffalo 6-3
Chiefs 6-4
Cowboys 7-2
Steelers 5-3-1
Buccaneers 6-3
Vikings 4-5
Cardinals 8-2
Rams 7-3
Saints 5-4
Ravens 6-3
Falcons 4-5
49ers 4-5
Eagles 4-6
Broncos 5-5
Bengals 5-4
Raiders 5-4
Dolphins 3-7
Panthers 5-5
Giants 3-6
Browns 5-5
Seahawks 3-6
Chargers 5-6
Jaguars 2-7
Washington 3-6
Jets 2-7
Bears 3-6
Lions 0-8-1
Texans 1-8
NFL Picks
In Week 10 I was 8-6 against the CBS Sports Football Pick'em point spread and 8-6 straight up. For the "season" (I only began picking games in week 6) I'm 38-32 (54.3%) against the spread and 43-27 (61.45) straight-up.
I'm making my Week 11 picks at CBS Sports based on whether my victory margins predicted here are higher or lower than CBS's point spreads. I'll report my results next week.
Patriots vs Falcons: Patriots by 4
Colts vs Bills: Colts by 1
Texans vs Titans: Titans by 11
Washington vs Panthers: Panthers by 2
Ravens vs Bears: Ravens by 5
Lions vs Browns: Browns by 3
49ers vs Jaguars: 49ers by 2
Packers vs Vikings: Packers by 3
Dolphins vs Jets: Dolphins by 3
Saints vs Eagles: Saints by 2
Bengals vs Raiders: Bengals by 1
Cowboys vs Chiefs: Chiefs by 1
Cardinals vs Seahawks: Cardinals by 3
Steelers vs Chargers: Steelers by 5
Giants vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers by 4
Passer Rating Update
In Week 10 games, the team with the higher passer rating (PR) went 13-0-1.
4 games had a PR differential of 50+, and all were blowouts.
5 games had a PR differential of 25-50; three were won by 9+ points (two possessions or more)
5 games (including the tie) had a PR differential of 0-25; two were won by 9+ points.
For the year, teams with a PR advantage of
50+ are 30-1
25-50 are 48-4
0-25 are 44-22-1
Overall, the team with the higher PR has won 81.7% of games, but they've recently been winning at a significantly higher rate: in the last two weeks they've been 26-1-1.
Of teams with a quarterback in the top 16 in PR, eleven have winning records, three are .500, and two have losing records. The breakdown of the top 16 in QBR is 12 winning records, 2.500, and 2 losing.
Of the top 16 in TEAM passer rating (including all passers, from starters to backups to "trick play" passers), 12 have winning records, one is .500, and three have losing records. The top 16 in DEFENSIVE passer rating include 11 winning teams, 2 .500 teams, and 3 losing teams.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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