FBS Playoffs, Heisman, NFL MVP Chase, and Week 14 picks
Outstanding isn't the same as most valuable.
The College Football Selection Committee has made their choices. As I predicted, Michigan, Cincinnati, Alabama, and Georgia got in.
Of course, my prediction wasn't difficult to make; everyone was saying the same. I suspect most objective formulas ended up with them at the top and Notre Dame fifth. Perhaps the most reliable is the CPI Rating. It uses the traditional basketball RPI formula that takes into consideration only winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponent's winning percentage.
In contrast, my formula was based on cumulative wins of FBS opponents a team has beaten, minus total losses of opponents a team has lost to. I also factored in "convincing wins" (9+ points) and margin of defeat.
Mixing in the CPI Rating is something I'd likely do in the future as an additional weight that doesn't favor "Power 5" over "Group of 5" teams but which will still tend to favor strong teams that play in strong conferences.
I would prefer that the Selection Committee placed more weight on the conference championship game results and treat them separately from regular-season games. Its contestants should view them as playoff games; you must get over this final hurdle and prove you're the best in your conference to get an invitation. The Committee's insistence on subjective opinions on "best" or most talented teams goes against the spirit of what championships have always been about: results.
Speaking of college football, I haven't discussed the Heisman Trophy here at the MVP Chase. One main reason is that it is not a "most valuable player" award like they have in the NFL (see below, NBA, NHL, and MLB. The Heisman is, instead, awarded to the "outstanding" player in college football. I take that to mean the player the opposing team's coaches would worry about most. From a fan's perspective, that's usually the same as the player you most want to see.
I don't think this can be quantified the way I do think MVP can be quantified. I leave the Heisman up to the subject judgement of each voter, and would have no objection if Alabama qb Bryce Young wins it.
On the subject of MVPs, the final five weeks of the NFL will be big. To earn an MVP point, a player must have a passer rating of 97.0 or 70 yards from scrimmage in a victory or tie. Gaudy numbers are put up every week, but this is hard to do week in, week out.
The AP MVP will almost certainly be among these names.
Eight MVP Points
Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers (9-3)
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (8-4)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (8-4)
Seven MVP Points
Davante Adams, WR, Packers (9-3)
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (9-3)
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (10-2)
Six MVP Points
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (9-3)
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Broncos (6-6)
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys (8-4)
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (9-3)
Najee Harris, RB, Steelers (6-5-1)
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (7-5)
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (8-4)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (9-3)
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (6-6)
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (7-6)
NFL PICKS
In the NFL’s Week 13 I had my worst week, going 4-10 against the CBS Sports Football Pick'em point spread although 9-5 straight-up. For the "season" (I only began picking games in week 6) I'm 58-56 (50.1%) against the spread and 71-43 (62.2%) straight-up.
I'm making my Week 14 picks at CBS Sports based on whether my victory margins predicted here are higher or lower than CBS's point spreads. I'll report my results next week.
Steelers @ Vikings, Vikings by 3
Falcons @ Panthers, Panthers by 5
Ravens @ Browns, Browns by 2
Seahawks @ Texans, Seahawks by 2
Raiders @ Chiefs, Chiefs by 10
Saints @ Jets, Jets by 3
Jaguars @ Titans, Titans by 7
Cowboys @ Washington, Washington by 6
Lions @ Broncos, Broncos by 6
Giants @ Chargers, Chargers by 4
49ers @ Bengals, 49ers by 2
Bills @ Buccaneers, Buccaneers by 4
Bears @ Packers, Packers by 9
Rams @ Cardinals, Cardinals by 3
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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