With Conference Championship Week ending, the Playoff Committee will shortly reveal the four teams that will get into the FBS Playoffs.
According to my formula, the top four teams are:
Michigan
Cincinnati
Alabama
Georgia
The Playoff Committee will likely select them, although they may be ranked in a different order.
Michigan and Alabama are obvious: they each have just one (close) loss on their records and beat several good teams. Because my formula makes no distinction between “Power 5” and “Group of 5” conferences, undefeated AAC champion Cincinnati should also be obvious, but the Committee has frowned on such teams in the past (most notably, the AAC’s Central Florida in 2017 and 2018).
Just as not all Power 5 conferences are of equal strength, neither are all “Group of 5” conferences. If 12-1 Sun Belt Champion Louisiana had beaten Texas in Week 1, their overall easy schedule would still have kept them out of the top four. Cincinnati faced several winning teams in the AAC, not to mention their win over otherwise-undefeated Notre Dame. The Bearcats have earned a playoff spot, and my understanding is that the Committee will concede and bring them in.
If Michigan had played an FCS school like the other three did, my formula would have had Cincinnati #1. Because Michigan played an all-FBS schedule (including MAC champion Northern Illinois) they had the most FBS wins of anyone and got the top spot.
Alabama was 7th last week, although that hardly mattered. #5 Notre Dame and #6 Ohio State didn’t play for a conference championship, while the Tide breezed by 12-win Georgia.
Which brings us to the Bulldogs. Will they get in? I believe so. Does my formula say they’ll get in? Yes.
Do I like it? No.
There have been other years when non-conference champions have made the playoffs. Independent Notre Dame (2018, 2020) has made it twice. In 2017 Ohio State advanced despite not playing the the Big Ten Championship, and in 2018 Alabama advanced despite not playing for the SEC title. Both were one-loss teams and they didn’t “lose” the championship; they were tied for first in their conference divisions. Tie-breaking rules kept them out of the championship games.
Georgia is different. Although the Bulldogs dominated the season until yesterday, they lost their conference championship. This isn’t the NCAA basketball tournament, in which good teams often use the conference tournament as a warm-up to the Big Dance; in football, every game is (or should be) important, and one would think the conference championship game would be the most important; if Georgia gets in, it would be a sign that the game didn’t matter.
Because I want Conference Championship games to matter in selecting teams for the playoff, I don’t want Georgia to get in. They certainly don’t “deserve” it; they had their chance and blew it against Alabama.
Next up in my formula is 11-2 Baylor, who like Alabama jumped over Notre Dame and Ohio State. Inviting a two-loss team, however, would be worse than inviting Georgia, especially considering that there are still one-loss teams available. It would send an even worse message than a Georgia invite, that the regular season doesn’t matter. The Committee has never invited a two-loss team and has no reason to do so this year.
Next in my ranking is one-loss Notre Dame. If the Committee punishes the Irish for refusing to join a conference (and play for conference championships), that also means they will reward Georgia for losing a conference championship.
I don’t think either “deserves” to get in the playoffs; most years, no team vying for the fourth spot really deserves it. Like this year, they usually have shaky arguments. Overall, however, my preference is Notre Dame.
So, I predict Michigan, Cincinnati, and Alabama. If they don’t all get in, something shady is going on in the Committee. I predict Georgia will be the fourth, and that would be to my benefit because it would show my formula has predictive value. All things considered, however, I would prefer Notre Dame.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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Great analysis.