The FBS Playoff Chase ahead of the Conference Championships
Four teams will deserve it if they win this weekend.
Conference Championship Week is upon us!
Four teams, Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State, should be assured of a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff if they win their conference championship games this weekend. Based on my formula based on a strength of schedule, convincing wins, and bad losses, they have the best resumes to enter the playoffs right now.
On the outside looking in is Notre Dame. It has famously and repeatedly refused to join a conference. In my formula, it's virtually tied with Oklahoma State, but will be far behind the top four if they all win this weekend.
But, the Irish still have a chance. Two things operate in Notre Dame's favor:
The Selection Committee is unlikely to invite a Power Five team with two losses. Michigan and Oklahoma State would be removed from consideration if they lost. Their Conference Championship opponents, Iowa and Baylor, also won't be considered because they already have two losses..
The Committee's just as unlikely to invite a Group of Five team with one loss. Cincinnati would be gone with a loss to Houston, and Houston won't be considered because it already has a loss. Neither would other one-loss Group of Five teams if they won their conferences (e.g., Louisiana, San Diego State).
Notre Dame is considered Power 5-equivalent, so it's likely to get the invitation should Michigan, Cincinnati, or Oklahoma State lose. Unless Georgia is completely humiliated by Alabama in the SEC Championship, it might also still get an invitation should two or three of the other top four teams fall. That goes to show the strength of its resume.
In short, there's a group of three: Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State.
If one of them loses their championship game, Notre Dame gets in.
If two of them lose, Notre Dame gets in, and Georgia will get in even if it loses their game.
If Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State all go down this weekend, then the Committee will be in a predicament: it would have to invite a two-loss Power 5 team or a one-loss Group of 5 team.
For that dreadful scenario, involving teams that would never have been considered in the old BCS or Bowl systems, I have my Playoff Chase rankings. Assuming a three-loss team is out of the question, this is how I've ranked the undefeated, one-loss, and two-loss teams that are left. In bold are the teams I believe ought to be assured of the Playoffs with a victory this weekend.
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Georgia 12-0; playing 11-1 Alabama for the SEC Championship.
Michigan 11-1; playing 10-2 Iowa for the Big Ten Championship.
Cincinnati 12-0; playing 11-1 Houston for the AAC Championship
Oklahoma State 11-1; playing 10-2 Baylor for the Big 12 Championship
Notre Dame 11-1; Independent, not playing
Ohio State 10-2; failed to win conference division, not playing
Alabama 11-1 playing 12-0 Georgia in the SEC Championship
Baylor, 10-2; playing 11-1 Oklahoma State for the Big 12 Championship
Wake Forest 10-2; playing 10-2 Pitt for the ACC Championship.
San Diego State 11-1; playing 9-3 Utah State for the Mountain West Championship
Ole Miss 10-2; failed to win conference division, not playing
UTSA 11-1; playing 8-4 Western Kentucky for the C-USA Championship
Iowa 10-2; playing 11-1 Michigan for the Big Ten Championship
Appalachian State 10-2, playing 11-1 Louisiana for the Sun Belt Championship
Michigan State 10-2 failed to win conference division, not playing
Louisiana 11-1, playing 10-2 Appalachian State for the Sun Belt Championship
Oregon 10-2;, playing 9-3 Utah for the Pac-12 Championship
Oklahoma 10-2, fell to 3rd in Big 12, not playing for championship
Houston 11-1, playing 12-0 Cincinnati for the AAC Championship
BYU 10-2, Independent; not playing
Pitt 10-2, playing 10-2 Wake Forest for the ACC Championship
Coastal Carolina 10-2, failed to win conference division, not playing
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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