With so many players being out with extended injuries, I'm again re-examining how to select the NBA MVP. I was wondering, how many games can a player miss and still deserve the award?
I knew without looking it up that most years, the MVP has played 90% or more of their team's games. Most others played around 85% of games. I was thinking of dropping the standard to 75%, but was looking for a precedent.
In the 1977-78 NBA season, Bill Walton was given the Most Valuable Player award.
He had played 58 of 82 games, just 71%
But, the Trail Blazers were 48-10 when he played. They were 10-14 without him. The 58 total wins were first in the NBA by three games and first in the Western Conference by nine.
I haven't investigated that season to determine if Walton should have won the award, but it's understandable why he did. I decided that there doesn't need to be any minimum number of games played to win MVP.
Nevertheless, showing up and playing in victories is in large part what a "most valuable" player is supposed to do.
On the other hand, if the five regular starters of a team stays healthy throughout the season, playing almost every game, and the team finishes with the best record, they shouldn't all occupy the five slots of the MVP ballot, should they?
The purpose of the MVP Chase is to discover a very simple, robotic determination for MVP in each of the major team sports.
For the NBA, I've chosen this: John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) + Player Wins (PW) divided by 2. (Player wins is the number of games a player played in which his team won). That is:
NBA MVP Points = PER + PW/2
The leader in PER usually has a rating in the low thirties. The league's best record usually goes to a team that won 60+ games.When we halve that, we get roughly a 50% split between player excellence and team success in determining the MVP.
A player with a high PER might play with a struggling team, indicating that his individual excellence isn't elevating his team. Likewise, the best player on the league's best team may be far down the list of PER leaders but might still be a worthy MVP candidate because PER doesn't measure everything a player does to help his team win. His team's win total will help him in the MVP chase.
PER + PW/2 takes into account both individual production and team success.
Here I have my initial rankings for the MVP Chase using this new formula. I'm listing the top ten players and their MVP Chase score ( PER + PW/2) as of the late afternoon of February 28, 2022 (before the evening games are played).
The list, right now, makes a lot of sense. If, by the end of the season, the list just looks and feels wrong, I'll rethink the formula once again.
Nicola Jokic, Nuggets, 49.7
Joel Embiid, 76ers, 48.4
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 47.0
Chris Paul, Suns, 45.1
DeMar DeRozan, Bulls, 43.3
Stephen Curry, Warriors, 42.2
Devin Booker, Suns, 42.2
Rudy Gobert, Jazz, 41.3
Jarrett Allen, Cavaliers, 40.2
Ja Morant, Grizzlies 39.8
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!