My NFL MVP Chase measures how often a (ball-handling) player makes significant contributions to victories. Based on data from previous seasons, I concluded at the beginning of this season that a quarterback with a passer rating of 97.0 or higher earns an MVP point if his team wins. For backs and receivers, 70 yards from scrimmage (receiving and/or rushing) in a victory will earn them an MVP point.
The MVP Chase cannot, and will not, reward great players on teams that lose a lot. It rewards players who played well in wins, not players who played well but were let down by their teammates. It's not their fault, but they're not winning, and the "value" in MVP comes in the winning.
Great players on bad teams can still burnish their Hall of Fame credentials by being named to Pro Bowls and All-Pro teams even if they don't rank high in the MVP Chase. That said, I was curious what the relationship was between a high standing in the MVP Chase and selection to the Pro Bowl.
One could predict that the quarterback selections strongly favor both winning quarterbacks and MVP candidates, because passer rating is a) the stat used for quarterbacks in the MVP Chase, and b) passer rating differential strongly correlates with winning.
For other positions, it's not so obvious. I recall that in 2003 LaDanian Tomlinson ran for over 1,600 yards for a 4-12 Chargers team, and in 2012 Calvin Johnson set the receiving yards record for a 4-12 Lions team.
Keep in mind that I'm only looking at the ball-handling players; almost every other position has a scant chance of producing an MVP. For each position, I will place in bold the highest finishers in the MVP Chase for that position who are also Pro Bowlers. In plain text I'll have top MVP Chase finishers who were not Pro Bowlers. In bold and italics will be the players who weren't leaders in the MVP Chase but were named Pro Bowlers.For each name, I'll place in parentheses the number of MVP Points they have.
For reference, here are the number of roster spots for each ball-handling position:
QB: 3
RB: 3
WR: 4
TE: 2
These are based on the standings as of Week 15, when the Pro Bowl rosters were announced. Games over Christmas weekend aren't included.
NFC:
QB: Matthew Stafford, Lions (10); Aaron Rodgers, Packers (8), Tom Brady, Patriots (7), Jimmy Gaoppolo, 49ers (7), Kyler Murray, Cardinals (7)
RB: Leonard Fournette (9), Aaron Jones, Packers (8), A.J. Dillon, Packers (7), Ezekiel Elliot, Cowboys (7), Alvin Kamara, Saints (7), James Conner, Cardinals (5), Dalvin Cook, Vikings (5)
WR: Cooper Kupp, Rams (10), Davante Adams, Packers (8), Mike Evans, Buccaneers (7), Deebo Samuel, 49ers (7), Justin Jefferson, Vikings (6)
TE: Dallas Goedert, Eagles (3), George Kittle, 49ers (3), Dalton Schultz, Cowboys, (3), Kyle Pitts, Falcons (2)
.
AFC:
QB: Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos (7), Justin Herbert, Chargers (7), Joe Burrow, Bengals (6), Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (5), Lamar Jackson, Ravens (3)
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Colts (7), Austin Ekeler, Chargers, 6, Najee Harris,Steelers (6), Nick Chubb, Browns (5), Joe Mixon, Bengals (5)
WR: Tyreek Hill, Chiefs (7), Mike Williams, Chargers (5), Keenan Allen, Chargers (4), Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals (4), Marquise Brown, Ravens (4), Diontae Johnson, Steelers (4), Stefon Diggs, Bills (3)
TE: Travis Kelce, Chiefs (5), Mark Andrews, Ravens (3)
One thing that strikes out is that the teams with the worst records among ball-handling Pro Bowlers are the Browns, Falcons, and Vikings, all at a mediocre but competitive 7-8. Worse teams do have players on the offensive line, defense, and special teams. It appears that the better the "skill position" players, the more success a team has.
Also, eleven of the top 14 in total yards from scrimmage are Pro Bowlers. While the MVP Chase rewards all-purpose backs on winning teams like Leornard Fournette and Aaron Jones, several players from lesser teams have more yards.
Regardless of MVP Chase standings, I would still have selected Joe Burrow over Lamar Jackson as an AFC quarterback, and Matthew Stafford over Kyler Murray for the NFC. Burrow and Murray were better in passer rating and QBR.
In all, the NFC had a stronger group of quarterbacks and receivers to choose from this year, perhaps a reflection that the conference has more very good teams and bad teams, whereas most AFC teams are closer to the middle.
Congratulations to everyone named to the Pro Bowl!
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you enjoy his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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