After Week 2 (which is actually after the third week) of the college football season, I have enough data to establish the College Football Playoff Chase, the aim of which is to hold one of the top four spots at the end of Conference Championship weekend.
THIS IS NOT A RANKING OF THE BEST TEAMS. But while my formula is producing seemingly odd results now, they will provide the four teams that will be in the Playoff at the end of the year. There are three important points I'd like to make.
First, all teams and all conferences in the FBS are measured on an equal footing; a victory against an FBS team is a victory against an FBS team. A victory against an FCS team, however, doesn't count for anything.
Second, margin of victory matters only if a team wins by 9+ points (i.e., by more than one possession). "Rolling up the score" will never be rewarded. A wide margin of defeat, however, can really hurt a team. That's why a lot of teams in the MAC are already far behind; they often got thrashed in non-conference games.
Third, I'm not making projections. For instance, I personally suspect that, down the road, Georgia's victory over Clemson will be very helpful for the Bulldogs; if Clemson goes on to win 11-12 games, that will literally be to Georgia's credit in my system. Same goes for Oregon for its victory over Ohio State. But that's assuming Ohio State will go on to win a lot of games. Assumptions are for ranking the best teams right now; this is a chase for a playoff spot.
And it's still early. A horse that jumps to the lead is often well behind at the end. But this is where the teams are right now.
(Where teams are tied, they are listed alphabetically.)
In the Lead
Rutgers
Tied for Second
Army
Florida
Iowa
Pitt
Purdue
Tied for Seventh
Air Force
Arkansas
Baylor
Kansas State
Kentucky
Michigan
Miss St
Oregon
Penn State
Texas Tech
San Diego St
UCLA
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Tied for 21st
Alabama
Auburn
Arizona St
Boise State
Boston College
BYU
Coastal Carolina
Cincinnati
Georgia
Marshall
Michigan St
New Mexico
Ohio State
Ole Miss
SMU
South Alabama
Texas A&M
UCF
UTSA
Wake Forest
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Tied for 43rd
Appalachian St
Charlotte
Fresno St
Georgia
Liberty
Maryland
Memphis
Missouri
Nevada
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
TCU
Utah St
Tied for 59th (Note: while a handful of teams above have a loss, all teams from here on all have at least one loss)
Arkansas State
Clemson
Colorado
Duke
Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
NC State
Northern Illinois
Stanford
Syracuse
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Utah
Washington St
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Tied for 76th
Cal
FAU
FIU
Georgia Tech
Houston
Indiana
Iowa State
LSU
Oregon State
Texas
Texas State
USC
Tied FOR 88th
Central Michigan
Louisville
Miami (FL)
Minnesota
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Northwestern
Tied For 95th
Arizona
Ball St
East Carolina
Illinois
Kansas
Kent St
Louisiana
Old Dominion
Southern Miss
Temple
Tied for 105th
Buffalo
E Michigan
San Jose St.
W Michigan
UL-Monroe
110th
Georgia Southern
Tied for 111th
Bowling Green
Miami (OH)
UAB
UTEP
Tied for 115th
Georgia State
Hawaii
Massachusetts
Navy
Rice
Tied for 120th
New Mexico State
South Florida
122nd
Akron
Out of the Chase
The following have all lost to FCS schools this season. They may still salvage good seasons, and I'll monitor their progress, but I consider them eliminated from the Playoff Chase. The FBS national champion, the best team in college football, can not have lost to a lower-division opponent, ever. That's why I put them at the bottom. I have, however, ranked these non-contenders, using the same system as the other teams above, and noting where they would otherwise be in the Playoff Chase.
Tied for 123rd (would be 76th)
Florida State
Tulsa
125th (would be 88th)
Vanderbilt
126th (would be 95th)
Colorado State
Washington
TIED for 128th (would be 105th)
UNLV
Ohio
130th and Last; (would be 130th)
UConn
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. Your support through Paypal helps keep him going. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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