To earn a point in the NFL MVP Chase, a player must have a passer rating of 97.0 or more (if a quarterback) or 70 yards from scrimmage in a victory or tie.
Six weeks ago, I discussed the two leaders in the MVP Chase, Rams teammates Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford, and concluded that Stafford was more likely to win the MVP. Part of my reasoning is that a wide receiver's never won it before. I also acknowledged the season was still young and others might come up and take the lead.
After six weeks, and even after a Rams three-game losing streak, Kupp and Stafford never lost the lead. In some weeks a third player was tied with them, but now it's back to just those two. If that's the case at the end of the year, I'm now thinking Kupp may very well win the MVP.
While Stafford's having his best season and one of the best this year for a quarterback, he is currently second to Aaron Rodgers in passer rating, and his Rams are tied for second behind Rodgers's Packers for the best record.
Stafford also presided over the three-game losing streak in which he threw five interceptions, and has six more interceptions than Rodgers for the season. While he’s having a great year, Stafford isn’t on pace to set any league records in, say, yards or touchdowns, or is otherwise having an historic season.
While Stafford has met my 97.0 benchmark in every victory and Rodgers has not, I don't see how one quarterback would be given the MVP when another had the better season by every other standard.
In contrast, Kupp is dominating the receiving statistics. After 14 games, Kupp…
leads in receptions (122) by 20.
leads in receiving yards (1625) by 290.
leads in receiving touchdowns (14) by 3.
And while a ball-handler has to gain 70 yards from scrimmage in a victory (or tie) to earn an MVP point in my system, Kupp has had at least 90 yards receiving in every Rams victory. He also has had at least one touchdown in nine of them.
Kupp's 2021 season is fourth this century in receiving yards per game, and he is having a better year overall than those ranked ahead of him.
Calvin Johnson (2012) scored five touchdowns for the 4-12 Lions.
Josh Gordon (2013) scored nine touchdowns for the 4-12 Browns.
Julio Jones (2015) scored eight touchdowns for the 8-8 Falcons
Based on the number of times he's been targeted, Kupp's catch rate is 74.4%.
Johnson's catch rate was 59.8%
Gordon's was 54.7%
Jones's was 67%
While Johnson and Gordon were expected to have lower catch rates because they were "deep-ball" receivers and Kupp is a "possession" receiver, these numbers underscore that possession receivers are more valuable.
If Kupp sustains his statistical pace and the Rams win out, I could see the MVP voters breaking with tradition and awarding the MVP to the wide receiver. I had written that Stafford, as an upgrade for the Rams at quarterback, has benefitted Kupp. But Stafford is relying on Kupp more than any other quarterback is relying on a single receiver.
I fear that the voters may think, "Well, Jerry Rice never won the MVP. Randy Moss never won the MVP. So how are we going to give it to Cooper Kupp?"
I would turn it around and say, "Well, Drew Brees never won the MVP. Russell Wilson never won the MVP. But Matt Ryan and Cam Newton have. So why shouldn't you give it to Kupp?"
That said, here are the remaining players that, with three games left, still have a mathematical chance to win the MVP Chase.
TEN MVP POINTS
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (10-4)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (10-4)
NINE MVP POINTS
Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers (10-4)
EIGHT MVP POINTS
Davante Adams, WR, Packers (11-3)
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (11-3)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers (11-3)
SEVEN MVP POINTS
Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (10-4)
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Broncos (7-7)
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (10-4)
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers (8-6)
Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (8-6)
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (10-4)
Kyler Murray, QB, Cardinals (10-4)
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (8-6)
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (8-6)
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you enjoy his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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