Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
Photo: Public Domain
For years I've been a fan of John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) as the best determination of the best player in a given season. Although I don't know all the math behind it, PER is based on data derived from actual performance and not on estimates that advanced stats like Win Shares, Box Plus-Minus, or Value Over Replacement rely upon.
Every year I fiddle with what I believe is the best formula for determining the league's Most Valuable Player, which could be different from the "best" player. I believe the answer comes down to game-by-game performances where minutes played and +/- (team points scored - points allowed when the player is on the court) are considered. I never had the time or access to databases to test my theory.
And so I've always come back to PER, and sought to weigh it equally against a player's actual participation in winning basketball games.
I am considering:
PER. Let's say a player's PER is 30.0
The team's record when the player plays. For instance, perhaps the player played 70 of the scheduled 82 games and the team was 50-20 with him. 50/70 is .714 or 71.4%
The percentage of team victories in which the player played. Let's say the team won 56 games. 50/56 is .893 or 89.3%.
I want PER (the player's performance) to be measured as a number of about equal weight to how much he contributed to winning. This can be done by dividing PER by 2 and dividing both #2 and #3 by ten.
MVP Rating = PER/2 + Player's winning %/10 + Player wins/Team wins %//10.
For the above player: 30/2 + 71.4//10 + 89.3/10 or 15.0+ 7.14 + 8.93 or 31.07.
In the MVP Chase, eight candidates stand out for five slots on the ballot. Here are their names and how they rank:
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (PER 31.0): 15.50 + 6.96 + 9.65 = 32.11
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (29.3): 14.65 + 7.33 + 9.65 = 31.63
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (29.9): 14.95 + 6.16 + 9.18 = 30.29
Luka Doncic, Mavericks (28.1): 14.05 + 6.57 + 9.20 = 29.82
Anthony Davis, Lakers (25.8): 12.90 + 5.92 + 9.57 = 28.39
Jalen Brunson, Knicks (23.4): 11.70 + 6.36 + 9.80 = 27.86
Jayson Tatum Celtics (22.3): 11.15 + 7.70 + 8.91 = 27.76
Domantas Sabonis, Kings (23.2): 11.60 + 5.61 + 10.00 = 27.21
All eight are in the top 14 of the NBA in PER, with Tatum the 14th. The six in the top 14 who aren't candidates fell short in the wins department. Tatum warrants consideration on the five–name ballot for having the highest winning percentage, and Sabonis deserves a look for playing all 82 games and all 46 of Kings victories. Like Brunson, they are very close to Anthony Davis at fifth place.
I think it's appropriate to favor players who managed to land their teams in the playoffs directly without having to play play-in games. Davis could only manage to take the Lakers to 7th place in the West and the Play-In, while Sabonis helped the Kings go to ninth place. Tatum was the best player on what was by far the best regular-season team, while the Knicks secured second place in the East because Brunson played in all but one victory. The Celtics, in contrast, won seven games without Tatum. They could have done without him in six additional victories and still would have secured first place.
I would therefore favor Brunson over Davis for the fifth spot on my hypothetical MVP ballot. I would put the top four on my ballot in the order that the calculation produced. Along with Joel Embiid, who missed most of the season, they are the best basketball players in the world.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.