Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
The NFL MVP Chase is based on counting the number of superior individual performances in team victories.
The winner of the 2023 NFL MVP Chase will probably not be, and arguably should not be, named the league's MVP. This is a change from my previous results. My previous winners: 2019's Lamar Jackson, 2020's Aaron Rodgers, 2021's Cooper Kupp, and 2022's Patrick Mahomes all should have won the MVP; all but Kupp did.
Here are the 2023 MVP Chase final standings:
T-1st: Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
T-1st: Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers
3rd: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
T4th: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
T4th: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins
6th: Jordan Love, QB, Packers
T7th: A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
Jared Goff, QB, Lion
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
The expectation, however, is that Lamar Jackson, on the long list of players tied for 7th place, will be the MVP and I can't disagree. And here I move on from objective data to personal opinion.
When two (or more) players on the same team warrant MVP consideration, we must assume that each one's greatness is making the other one greater as well. Purdy and McCaffrey helped each other become more productive, as did Hill and Tagovailoa. So let's take teammates off the list and see where we're at:
Jordan Love, QB, Packers
A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
The Rams were 8-4 with Williams, but he missed five games which has traditionally been too many. Brown's Eagles lost five of their last six games. Neither Love nor Mahomes were in the top ten in passer rating, something you'd normally expect in an MVP.
Lamar Jackson, however, was fourth in passer rating (third if we discount Kirk Cousins, who played only eight games). His most productive teammate, Gus Edwards, had 990 yards from scrimmage. In contrast, Purdy had four teammates who gained 1100+ yards and Tua had four who had 997 or more.
Opposing defenses had no one on the Ravens offense to be frightened of except Jackson. This is borne out by no other ball-handling teammate being named to the Pro Bowl (his only offensive teammate is his center, Tyler Linderbaum, named 2nd-team Pro Bowl). Despite the lack of star power, the Ravens finished fourth in scoring.
The purpose of the MVP Chase isn't to assert that the winner must be the MVP but to provide a default strong candidate that demands a compelling argument for someone else.
The arguments for Jackson are compelling. He's the best player on the best team.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.