The NFL preseason buzz centers around the five rookie quarterbacks drafted in the first round, with speculation centered on which ones will start the first game of the regular season.
I was curious about trends associated with Week 1 qb starts. Based partly on the convenience of previous Sports Illustrated reporting, I went back to 2008 because there's been at least one rookie Week 1 starter every season since. Also, going earlier than 2008 seems like delving into an entirely different era.
In the seasons 2008-2020, there were 24 rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1. 18 were drafted in the first round. Four 2nd-rounders, one 3rd-rounder, and one 4th rounder also started.
The 4th-rounder, Dak Prescott, was pressed into service due to injury to Tony Romo. The 3rd rounder, Russell Wilson, unexpectedly beat out incumbent quarterback Tavaris Jackson and free agent Matt Flynn.
Among the 2nd-rounders, Andy Dalton was given the starting job after Carson Palmer made good on his threat to retire or be traded. Derek Carr beat out veteran Matt Schaub, for whom the Raiders traded a low-round pick earlier that year. Geno Smith took over for the injured Mark Sanchez. DeShone Kizer beat out Brock Osweiler (acquired by trade) and two holdover backups to start for the winless Browns in 2017.
40 quarterbacks were drafted in the first round 2008-2020, and only 18 started in Week 1.
Seven of nine first-overall picks started. The exceptions were Jared Goff, who backed up incumbent starter Case Keenum, and Baker Mayfield, who was behind former Bills Pro-Bowler Tyrod Taylor. The seven rookie starters didn't face training camp competition from an incumbent or any other viable veteran starter.
Trevor Lawrence, 2021's #1 overall pick is an exception. He actually does have an incumbent starter on his team, Gardner Minshew, but no one believed it was an open competition. Lawrence is acknowledged to have superior ability, and was named the starter this week.
Among qbs drafted with the second overall pick, three of four started Week 1. Two of four who were picked third overall did, as did one of the two fifth overall picks (none were chosen fourth). Then there's a sharp drop-off. Of the 21 qbs picked 6th-32nd, just five started Week 1.
Almost all of these starters faced no meaningful training camp competition, even if there may have been a backup or two on the same team the year before. The most accomplished training camp competitor any of them had was former Super Bowl quarterback Rex Grossman, whom Robert Griffin III beat out in 2012.
2021 2nd-overall pick Zach Wilson also has no competition. He's been penciled in as the Jets starter since before the draft. The rest of the first round class, Trey Lance (third), Justin Fields (11th) and Mac Jones (15th) have greater challenges.
Lance faces incumbent Jimmy Garappolo, who played in the Super Bowl less than 19 months ago. Before drafting Fields, the Bears signed Andy Dalton, who's won a lot of games in the league. Mac Jones's competition is an incumbent, former MVP Cam Newton. Even though Dalton and Newton seem to be deteriorating and Garappolo's injury-prone, it's rare to see players of their experience and accomplishments lose their jobs in training camp to rookies.
History also suggests that an equally significant obstacle to Lance, Fields, and Jones starting in Week 1 is the strength of their teams. Of the 24 rookie Week 1 starters since 2008, 17 inherited a team that was 5-11 or worse the season before. In contrast, Lance's 49ers were an injury-riddled 6-10, Fields's Bears were 8-8 with a playoff appearance, and Jones's Patriots were 7-9.
A bad team is in rebuilding mode. The Jaguars and Jets are bad teams. They want Lawrence and Wilson to learn and improve through experience; wins don't matter as much this year. The 49ers, Bears, and Patriots, however, believe they're not far away from contending. They don't want to see their solid teams lose close games, and miss the playoffs, because of early-season rookie quarterback mistakes.
That very reason is why, after the first five picks, the vast majority of first-round quarterbacks since 2008 haven't started in Week 1.
Regardless of how well they may play in the preseason, history suggests that Lance, Fields, and Jones will be on the bench when the season begins.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. Your support through Paypal helps keep him going. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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