With the NFL regular season completed, I thought I'd do a raw ranking of the body of work of all 32 teams.
You could call it an evaluation of the season, with a caveat: I'm not ranking teams based on wins.
The formula is simple.
Count how many times a team scored 23 or more points. (In team scoring rankings, 23 is the median for points scored per game.).
Count how many times a team allowed 22 or fewer points. (In team scoring rankings, 22 is the median for points allowed per game.)
Add them together.
The resulting number reveals the overall strength of the team throughout the season. Among the top teams in the rankings, you could say that when the offense was struggling, the team could rely on the defense. And vice versa. An opponent couldn't plan for either a defensive bloodbath or a shootout because the top teams are too good on both sides of the ball.
In these rankings I'm including the 23+ scoring total, the 22- points allowed total, the overall total and the actual won-loss record.. In bold are AFC playoff teams; in bold italic are NFC playoff teams. Because this list doesn't account for recent performance trends or injuries, you can't say for certain that the rankings here determine my playoff predictions, but it's a guidepost.
In case of a tie in total points, I give the edge to the team with a higher scoring number, then where they are in their own conference's standings.
Bills 13,13, 26, 11-6
Packers 14,10, 24, 13-4
Buccaneers 14, 9, 23, 13-4
Cardinals 12,11, 23, 11-6
Patriots 11,11, 22, 10-7
Titans 11,10, 21, 12-5
Cowboys 11,10, 21, 12-5
Bengals 11,10, 21, 10-7
Rams 12,8, 20, 12-5
Colts 12,8, 20, 9-8
Eagles 10,10, 20, 9-8
Chiefs 11,8, 19, 12-5
Vikings 12,7, 19, 8-9
49ers 11,8, 19, 10-7
Broncos 8,11, 19, 7-10
Chargers 12,6, 18, 9-8
Seahawks 9,8, 17, 7-10
Saints 8,9, 17, 9-8
Browns 6,11, 17, 8-9
Steelers 7,9, 16, 9-7-1
Ravens 7,9, 16, 8-9
Raiders 8,7, 15, 10-7
Dolphins 6,7, 13, 9-8
Giants 4,9, 13, 4-13
Falcons 6,6, 12, 7-10
Bears 5,7, 12, 6-11
Panthers 5,7, 12, 5-12
Washington 4,8, 12, 7-10
Lions 5, 7, 12, 3-13-1
Jets 6,3, 9; 4-13
Texans 4,5,9; 4-13
Jaguars 2,5,7; 3-14
Two teams ranked in the top 15, the Vikings and Broncos, had losing records. It's no surprise that their coaches have just been fired. The Steelers and Raiders were below-average but made the playoffs, suggesting that they were good at winning close games even when playing with inferior talent.
Aside from the Steelers and Raiders, it's worth noting that every other playoff team scored 23+ points at least ten times, and allowed 22 or fewer points at least eight times. It's probably only fitting that the Chargers missed the playoffs in the last second of the regular season; their defense wasn't nearly good enough to have consistent playoff success.
When I make playoff predictions later this week, they won't be guesswork based on tired statements like "Who can beat Mahomes?" or "Never count out Brady!"
I'm looking for reasoning beyond that, but short of advanced analytics. I like my data sets to be simple.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you enjoy his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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