On Colin Cowherd's May 1 podcast. Chad Millman expressed dismay that Justin Fields was chosen after fellow quarterbacks Zach Wilson and Trey Lance in the NFL Draft. Millman wondered if there's a "lack of science in scouting."
Wilson, from BYU, started three years but 2020 was his only great year, and that was against an easy schedule. Lance, from North Dakota State, dominated in his one season quarterbacking the FCS powerhouse. Ohio State's Fields, like #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence of Clemson, played well in multiple seasons against top competition. He seems more "NFL-ready."
Millman also expressed doubts about Alabama's Mac Jones, the fifth quarterback drafted in the first round (15th overall), who played just one season with most talented teammates in college football.
I intuitively agreed with Millman, and wanted to look at the data.
I looked up the quarterbacks taken in the top half of the draft since 2011 to spot possible trends. (2011 was the first season of the salary caps on rookie contracts, which changed the quarterback marketplace; before then teams were often afraid of overpaying for a high-pick quarterback).
I wondered, how likely are any of them to become a bust?
Before that, we should ask, what is a quarterback bust? I would say a bust has three characteristics:
Drafted in the top half of the first round (picks 1-16). These are expected to be "franchise" quarterbacks; quarterbacks drafted later on are merely expected to be good enough in the right situation.
May or may not have have enjoyed early success (e.g., winning season, Pro Bowl)
Within a few seasons, or sometime even just a few games, is no longer trusted to be a starting quarterback in the NFL
Several factors can go into the making of a bust:
Maturity issues
Injuries
Poor coaching
The GM misjudged the players talent and ability
Inability to mentally process the speed and complexity of the NFL
From 2011 through 2020, 26 franchise quarterbacks were drafted in the top half of the first round.
Four were one-year starters in college. Cam Newton became an MVP and conference champion. Kyler Murray has played well after two seasons. Both were drafted #1 overall (and were also Heisman Trophy winners). The two busts were Mitchel Trubisky (2nd overall, 2017) and Dwayne Haskins (15th, 2019).
In terms of stats and winning percentage, Trubisky doesn't look like a bust, but the Bears released him and there was no demand for him to be a starting quarterback elsewhere. Haskins played poorly and violated team rules in two years playing for Washington.
Trey Lance (3rd, 2021) and Mac Jones (15th, 2021) join this group of 1-year college starters. It's unlikely Lance will start right away for the 49ers, as they have an established though injury-prone quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jones may sit behind Newton for the Patriots unless Newton continues to be plagued by nagging shoulder problems.
Lance, along with Zach Wilson (2nd, 2021) will join the group of quarterbacks from non-Power 5 schools drafted high in the first round. Josh Allen (7th, 2018) enjoyed breakthrough success in 2020 for the Bills. Carson Wentz (2nd, 2016) had success early in his career, had a poor year in 2020 with the Eagles but will be starting for the Colts this fall. The one bust is Blake Bortles. He threw 35 TDs in his second year, 2015. This probably bought him another couple of years as a starter, and he made it to the AFC Championship game in 2017. His passer rating never hit 90 and his completion percentage never reached 61, both of which are average in today's NFL.
Over time, Bortles simply wasn't good enough. It took Wentz a season as a starter to adjust to the NFL, and Allen took two seasons. Wilson will presumably start in Week 1 for the Jets, but I'd anticipate a long season in which he'll often look terrible. The Buffalo Bills may be a shock after feasting on Troy.
How about Trevor Lawrence? Well, none of the seven other qbs drafted #1 overall since 2011 is a bust. They've also gone to a grand total of two Super Bowls with zero wins. Of course, several of them are still in the early or middle part of their careers, so there is still time. But the only #1 overall quarterbacks who've won the Super Bowl this century have all been named Manning.
That leaves Justin Fields. For context, the projected quarterback starters in Week 1 of the NFL season include:
18 drafted in the top 10
5 drafted later in the first round
9 drafted in later rounds
The 18 can boast that they have a ring from Patrick Mahomes (who was a 10th overall pick).
The 14 drafted after the top 10 boasts rings from Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger (2) and Tom Brady (7). This group also includes 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson, Garoppolo (who came within a quarter of winning the Super Bowl), and reliable starters David Carr, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins.
Perhaps there's value in having one's talents and abilities questioned. Perhaps falling in the draft is a good thing. It might motivate one to play like a Hall of Famer, or at least better than expected.
Fields is in great company.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.