Two weeks ago, right before the play-in games, I ranked the then-remaining NBA contenders 1-20. That ranking was also my de facto prediction, in that I would always favor the higher-ranked team.
I've gotten some things wrong already. That's fine with me. I was more curious rather than certain. (I wasn't making bets.)
But since then I have been thinking about the criteria for predicting the NBA Finals teams. So, pretending I don't know the current results of the ongoing NBA playoffs, I'd like to re-do the prediction based on historical trends.
I looked at the 20 previous seasons, 2001-02 through 2020-21 with two things in mind:
How did the Finals teams finish in the regular-season standings?
What had their best (or at least one of their two best) player's career been like before that season?
The following are the Finals teams of those years, followed by the names of their leading players. In parentheses beside the team is how they finished in the conference standings. Players in italic had been a regular season MVP at least once before that season; players in bold had previously played in the Finals at least once before (and in some cases, several times); players in bold italic had been both an MVP and a Finals veteran. For other players, I mentioned their number of All-NBA selections.
Here's the rundown, followed by analysis and prediction.
2020-21: Bucks (3rd) vs Suns( 2nd); Giannis Antetokounmpo ; Chris Paul (10x All-NBA)
2019-20 Lakers (1st) vs Heat (5th);Lebron James, Jimmy Butler (2x All-NBA)
2018-19 Raptors (2nd) vs Warriors (1st); Kawhi Leonard (2x All-NBA); Stephen Curry
2017-18 Warriors (2nd) vs Cavaliers (4th); Stephen Curry, LeBron James
2016-17 Warriors (1st) vs Cavaliers (2nd); Stephen Curry, LeBron James
2015-16 Warriors (1st) vs Cavaliers (1st); LeBron James, Stephen Curry
2014-15 Warriors (1st) vs Cavaliers (2nd); Stephen Curry (1x All-NBA), LeBron James
2013-14 Spurs (1st) vs Heat (2nd); Tim Duncan, LeBron James
2012-13 Heat (1st) vs. Spurs (2nd) LeBron James; Tim Duncan
2011-12 Heat (2nd) vs Thunder (2nd); LeBron James, Kevin Durant (2x All-NBA)
2010-11 Mavericks (2nd) vs Heat (2nd) Dirk Nowitzki, LeBron James
2009-10 Lakers (1st) vs Celtics (4th); Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett
2008-09 Lakers (1st) vs Magic (3rd); Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard (2x All-NBA)
2007-08 Celtics (1st) vs Lakers (1st); Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant
2006-07 Spurs (3rd) vs Cavaliers (2nd); Tim Duncan; Lebron James (2x All NBA)
2005-06 Heat (2nd) vs Mavericks (2nd); Shaquille O'Neal, Dirk Nowitzki (5x All-NBA)
2004-05 Spurs(2nd) vs Pistons (2nd); Tim Duncan, Ben Wallace
2003-04 Pistons (2nd) vs Lakers (3rd); Ben Wallace (2x All-NBA), Shaquille O'Neal
2002-03 Spurs (1st) vs Nets (2nd); Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd
2001-02 Lakers (3rd) vs Nets (1); Shaquille O'Neal, Jason Kidd (3x All-NBA)
Forty teams had gone to the Finals.
37 finished 3rd or better in their conference; the worst was 5th (the Heat in the aberrational 2020 season).
27 had a player who earned at least one MVP award prior to that season.
29 had a leading player who had been in the Finals at least once before.
In 50% of the Finals, both teams' best players had been there before.
Is the data skewed by a "LeBron" factor? Looking back at the history of the NBA, I don't think so. Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan made their teams Finals favorites year after year. And of course there were the George Mikan and Bill Russell teams of the early NBA. The greatest players often don't just win championships, they lead dynasties. That's why the best players keep ending up back in the Finals.
Now in the morning of April 26, 2022, I'm going to make the prediction I wish I had made two weeks ago. I'll only look at the top four seeds in each conference; if someone below the the #4 seed gets in the Finals, I'll be shocked.
Western Conference
Phoenix Suns. Advantage: Core players had recently gone to the Finals. Disadvantages: No player has won MVP.
Memphis Grizzlies. Advantage: #2 seeds have made it to the Finals 45% of the time, more often than any other seed. Disadvantages: No leading player is an MVP or had played in the Finals previously or have even been named All-NBA even once.
Golden State Warriors: Advantage: Multiple players including multi-MVP Steph Curry have Finals experience. A #3 seed or lower has made the Finals in three of the last four years, more often than #1 seed. Disadvantage: Although not part of the criteria, age and injuries are a concern.
Dallas Mavericks. Advantage: Luka Doncic, already a 2-time first-team All-NBAer in just his fourth season. Disadvantages: No starters with Finals experience or an MVP.
Eastern Conference
Miami Heat. Advantage: Recent Finals experience for its top players (2020). Disadvantage: while they have good players, there are none who have been MVP candidates, and no #1 seed has won the East in five years (then again, maybe they're due).
Boston Celtics. Advantage: Jayson Tatum may be a budding superstar and this playoffs could be his breakthrough season. Disadvantage: Tatum has just one All-NBA honor (third team) and the team has no Finals experience.
Milwaukee Bucks. Advantage: They check all the boxes; Giannis has multiple MVPs and is a defending champion in his prime. Better than any player among the #1 and #2 seeds. Disadvantages: Unrelated to the criteria, but injuries could be a concern.
Philadelphia 76ers. Advantage: Joel Embiid is 3-time all-NBA and Giannis's chief rival for the "Best Player in the East" belt. This is a good opportunity to "break through" to his first Finals. James Harden's 6th-man role ten years ago in the Thunder's Finals appearance doesn't really qualify as someone who's led a team to the Finals, but he did win the MVP just four years ago. Disadvantages: 4-seeds rarely make the Finals (although in number of wins the 76ers are actually tied for the #2 seed).
The Heat won the East by just two games. The top player of the Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers is younger and more talented than the Heat's best player. I'm thinking they won't make it.
The historical trends favor the Bucks in the East. MVPs tend to be even hungrier after they win their first championship. And I'll take the Sun in the West. Teams that have won 75.6% of regular season games have made it to the Finals in 32 of 55 seasons; the Suns won 78% of their games.
I would therefore anticipate a rematch between the Suns and the Bucks.
Well, it turns out that was my initial prediction anyway.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!