Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
On January 10th, 2024, Nick Saban retired as head coach of Alabama, and Pete Carroll was removed as coach of the Seattle Seahawks. The next day, Bill Belichick parted ways with the New England Patriots.
It isn't recency bias to call Saban the greatest coach in college football history and Belichick the greatest coach in NFL history. Regardless of the form or method of determining champions, Saban and Belichick won more of them as head coaches in their respective sports than anyone else in history.
I am more interested in the legacy of Pete Carroll. If a list were made of "ten greatest coaches of all time" in either college or pro football, Carroll wouldn't be on it. But he was tremendously successful in both, and I was curious how he would rank among coaches in both sports this century. (Although I'm counting from the year 2000, not 2001 when the 21st century technically began).
For college football, I compared Carroll to other national championship-winning coaches based on three criteria:
Winning season percentage, that is, % of winning seasons to total seasons coached in the FBS.
Top ten percentage: % of Top Ten finishes (in either the AP or Coaches Poll) to total seasons.
National Championship percentage: % of #1 finishes (in either the AP or Coaches Poll) to total seasons.
Here are the results of my calculation. In parentheses is the total number of seasons coached since 2000. These are the national championship-winning coaches.
Nick Saban 218 (22 seasons)
Kirby Smart 213 (8 seasons)
Jim Tressel 190 (10 seasons)
Pete Carroll 189 (9 seasons)
Urban Meyer 182 (17 seasons)
Bob Stoops 171 (17 seasons)
Dabo Swinney 156 (16 seasons)
Jimbo Fisher 129 (14 seasons)
Mack Brown 126 (19 seasons)
Jim Harbaugh 131 (13 seasons)
Larry Coker 120 (10 seasons)
Les Miles 111 (18 seasons)
Gene Chizik 83 (6 seasons)
Ed Orgeron 80 (10 seasons)
Carroll coached only nine years and his ranking may be inflated because of that. Nevertheless, he's one of six coaches with at least two national championships and seven who coached in the title game at least three times. I'd say he's certainly one of the seven who were a major part of the story of college football in the 2000s.
There are or were several fine college coaches who never won a national championship and who would undoubtedly be viewed as better coaches than some near the bottom of the list. Nevertheless, we can fairly say that the top seven were the best of the century so far.
The NFL has different ways of building teams and determining championships. My criteria for coaching greatness in the NFL are:
Winning Season percentage (same as college)
Cumulative regular-season winning percentage
Cumulative playoff winning percentage
These are the Super Bowl-winning coaches since the 2000 season.
Bill Belichick 223 (24 seasons)
Tony Dungy 220 (9 seasons)
Sean McVay 216 (7 seasons)
Bruce Arians 209 (8 seasons)
Bill Cowher 206 (7 seasons)
Andy Reid 204 (24 seasons
Mike Tomlin 193 (17 seasons)
John Harbaugh 192 (16 seasons)
Pete Carroll 190 (14 seasons)
Doug Pederson 187 (7 seasons)
Mike McCarthy 185 (17 seasons)
Brian Billick 181 (8 seasons)
Sean Payton 177 (16 seasons)
Gary Kubiak 174 (10 seasons)
Tom Coughlin 161 (17 seasons)
Jon Gruden 148 (13 seasons)
Where Carroll might have been helped in the college rankings because he coached just nine years, he's hurt on this list because of coaches with shorter careers (in this century). As for the longer-serving coaches, Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Carroll, and McCarthy are close together with Payton not far behind.
(Coughlin is remembered for two Super Bowl wins with the Giants, but he had just six winning seasons in 16 years this century.)
It shouldn't be controversial to say that Carroll is one of the ten best NFL coaches this and among the seven best college coaches this century.
Carroll, however, doesn't meet the standard for making the College Football Hall of Fame, which is ten years coached. And he's one of a crowd worthy of Pro Football Hall of Fame consideration. He might not get in.
Still, it's a career almost any coach would have.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.