Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
NFL MVP Chase
Time constraints mean I again have no update this week. Jalen Hurts has a commanding lead, which prompts doubt as to whether I have the best system. I may investigate how players would fare under the system I had last year.
College Football Playoff
Earlier in the 2023 college football season I worked on a system to determine the best teams. My schedule became such that I could not devote time to it and shifted to considering the teams that are most deserving of entering the 4-team playoff.
Winning, strength of schedule, and margin of defeat (when applicable) are the standards I use. Some teams played an entire FBS schedule, while others played 11 games against FBS teams and one against an FCS team. My system prefers a full FBS slate, which is why Washington and Michigan are ahead of Georgia and Florida State, and Texas is ahead of other one-loss teams.
On the eve of the start of the conference championship games, my system has one-loss Texas as more "deserving" than undefeated Florida State. I am not pleased with this, and if all four undefeated Power-5 teams win their conference championships, I would campaign to have them in.
Teams with asterisks played an 11-game FBS schedule, although their FCS game is included in their won-loss record.
Washington 12-0 75 NEXT: Oregon 11-1
Michigan 12-0 73 NEXT: Iowa 10-2
Georgia* 12-0 67 NEXT: Alabama 11-1
Texas 11-1 67 NEXT: Oklahoma St 9-3
Florida St* 12–0 64 NEXT: Louisville 10-2
Alabama 11-1 62 NEXT: Georgia 12-0
Liberty 61 NEXT: New Mexico St 10-2
Ohio State* 11-1 60 NEXT: TBA
James Madison* 11-1 54 NEXT: TBA
Oregon* 11-1 53 NEXT: Washington 12-0
According to my system, 10-2 Penn State would be ranked ahead of the remaining one-loss teams. Ole Miss and Missouri probably would as well. They can be acknowledged as non-contenders. Nevertheless, they've had great seasons and would have a strong case to be invited to a New Year's Day bowl game if they win this weekend.
Toledo 11-1 46 NEXT: Miami OH 10-2
Tulane* 11-1 45 NEXT: SMU 10-2
Here is how I think the Playoff selections will come out:
The winner of Washington-Oregon gets in.
The winner of Georgia-Alabama gets in.
Michigan and Florida State get in with wins.
Texas gets in with a win and a Michigan or Florida State loss.
If the top four teams and Texas all lose and Liberty wins, I would personally give Liberty an invitation but it is more likely that Georgia, Washington, or Michigan will still be selected.
I'd like to see conference championship games as "play-ins" to the four-team playoff. If you lose the championship, you should be out. That is not, however, how the Playoff Committee has operated in the past. Teams have often lost their last game and still got invitations.
I hope Washington, Michigan, Georgia, and Florida State win so that we'll see, for the first time, four major undefeated teams in the playoffs.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.