NFL Playoff Predictions

The rankings may surprise you!

Image: Torsten Bolten

I am ranking the 14 NFL playoff teams and making predictions for how the playoffs unfold based on “chalk,” going by the numbers and not by considerations like home-field advantage or my impressions of the young quarterbacks.

Based only on the last six games, reflecting recent performance of the team while also providing a decent sample size, I ranked the teams 1-14 based on four measures (using data from Stathead):

1. Quarterback Index (QBI) - a stat I created last August

2. Rushing yards gained

3. Sacks made

4. Average yards per rush allowed

I added each team’s rankings in the four categories to create an overall score; the lower the score, the better.

Here are the results:

1. Broncos 22 (ranked ahead of Eagles due to better win-loss record)

2. Eagles 22

3. Rams 23

4. Patriots 24 (ranked ahead of Chargers due to better win-loss record)

5. Chargers 24

6. Bears 27

7. Jaguars 28

8. Texans 29

9. Seahawks 30

10. Bills 32

11. Steelers 33

12. 49ers 34

13. Panthers 36

14. Packers 42

The rankings may be surprising; I didn’t foresee the Packers coming in last, but they were in the bottom half of all four categories. The 49ers have one of the top quarterbacks (tied for 1st in QBI with the Jaguars) but suffer elsewhere, while the Seahawks are as low as they are because of their quarterback (14th in QBI). Despite the buzz surrounding teams like the Rams and Patriots, however, it appears that the Eagles and Broncos, criticized for most of the year for offensive struggles, have what it takes to take home the crown. Or, my predictions are insane.

Here’s how I see the playoffs unfold:

FIRST ROUND (byes: Broncos and Seahawks)

• Eagles over 49ers

• Rams over Panthers

• Patriots over Chargers

• Bears over Packers

• Jaguars over Bills

• Texans over Steelers

SECOND ROUND

• Eagles over Bears

• Rams over Seahawks

• Patriots over Texans

• Broncos over Jaguars

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

• Eagles over Rams

• Broncos over Patriots

SUPER BOWL

• Broncos over Eagles

When the season is over, I’ll review how effective my rankings were and whether any particular category (e.g., rushing yards) proved to be the best predictor.

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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.