Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
Today's Topics: NFL MVP Chase and College Football Playoff Chase
NFL MVP CHASE
My previous experiment in tabulating the NFL MVP wasn't working. I hypothesized that a team's most reliable win-by-win fantasy performer in victories would be its MVP and would produce results similar to MVPs of years past under a different formula. But the results weren't conforming to that result.
Under the new standard, Jalen Hurts was in the lead for MVP mainly because his Eagles team had the best record. Under the old standard, however, he wouldn't even be in the top ten.
The old standard was that a player has to have a great game (100+ passer rating or 100+ yards from scrimmage from others) when the team has a great game (that is, a win).
For example: Christian McCaffrey had 100+ yards from scrimmage in eight of nine 49er wins. He would have eight MVP points.
Jalen Hurts has four MVP points.
Here's my revised Top Ten list, using last year's formula
TIE 1st: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins, WR (9-3) 8 MVP Points
TIE 1st:Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (9-3): 8
TIE 3rd: Dak Prescott, QB (9-3), Cowboys: 7
TIE 3rd: Brock Purdy, QB (9-3), 49ers: 7
TIE 3rd: Tua Tagovailoa (9-3), QB, Dolphins: 7
TIE 6th: A.J Brown, WR, Eagles (10-2): 6
TIE 6th: Trevor Lawrence QB (8-4), Jaguars 6
TIE 8th Patrick Mahomes, QB Chiefs (8-4), 5
Tie 8th Ceedee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (9-3) 5
Tie 8th Jordan Love, QB, Packers (6-6) 5
College Football Playoff Chase
Two weeks ago, I incorrectly predicted Florida State would get into the College Football Playoff with a win in its Conference Championship game. I didn't anticipate that an undefeated major conference champion would not get an invitation. I thought the whole point of a four-team playoff would be to accommodate such a scenario.
My rating is based on this:
Total wins by FBS opponents that the team beat.
Subtract total losses by opponents that the team lost to (if applicable).
Subtract the number of possessions away from the contender being undefeated. (Losing by 1-8 points is one possession, 9-16 is two possessions, etc).
Here are my final ratings of relevant playoff contenders.
Washington 13-0 86
Michigan 13-0 83
Texas 12-1 76
Florida St 13–0 74
Alabama 12-1 74
Liberty 13-0 71
Georgia 12-0 65
One-loss Texas does rank ahead of Florida State. Alabama, however, is tied with Florida State. I heard one commentator (name forgotten) use the word "sporting" and that was the word I would have been looking for: The sporting thing to do is invite the undefeated team, to give it a chance to prove it's the best in the land. This is something Alabama had already failed to do once this year.
That Florida State is without its starting quarterback doesn't make a difference. The team deserves a shot. The reason they were left out is the Committee thought they would be less competitive in the playoffs. Anyone can have that opinion, but if Florida State got into the playoffs, we would know for sure how good they are.
I would've been far more excited and curious with playoffs featuring three undefeated teams than playoffs where one major undefeated team was deliberately left out.
I also thought a 12-team playoff, which begins next year, would feature all undefeated teams, including any from non-power-5 conferences. Now I'm not so sure.
John Middlekauff said this was a good life lesson for Florida State's players about the unfairness of business and life. But the only lesson is that the Playoff Committee has abandoned the idea that even sports - or at least college football - doesn't even pretend to be fair anymore. You can't even count on sports to do the sporting thing.
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.