Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
Photo: public domain
My NBA MVP Chase balances a player's overall caliber of play based on the Hollinger Player Efficiency Rating (PER)and "wins played" (WP), the number of games the player played in which his team won. The formula is simple: MVP Chase Score = PER + (WP/2).
Because it's not even halfway through the season, PER is more heavily weighted in the current MVP Chase positioning than it will be at the end of the regular season. For example, leader Joel Embiid has a PER of 34. His WP is 21. His MVP Chase score is 34 + (21/2) or 34 + 10.5. That is, 44.5. Let's say his PER is constant and his WP is 48 at the end of the season. 34 + (48/2) is 58.
Perhaps Nikola Jokic will remain steady with a 31.2 PER, but he wins 55 games. 31.2 + (55/2) is 58.7. Jokic would edge out Embiid.
That is why it's called the MVP "Chase." Players not only have to perform at a high level individually, they'll have to show up and win games to win it.
Barring major injuries, I expect this to be a 4-man chase to the end of the season with another group chasing the fifth-place vote on the MVP ballot.
Here are the Top Ten in the NBA MVP Chase based on games played through January 8, 2024:
Joel Embiid, 76ers, 44.5
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 43.7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder, 43.0
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 41.7
Luka Doncic, Mavericks, 38.2
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers, 36.3
Jayson Tatum, Celtics, 34.8
Anthony Davis, Lakers, 34.8
Chet Holmgren, Thunder, 33.7
Kawhi Leonard, Clippers, 33.4
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.