In honor of Kobe and KG: ranking the NBA high school draftees
Were they wrong to skip college?
On Saturday (May 15 2021) Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Kobe Bryant, among others, will be inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
Each of them stand out from typical NBA Hall-of-Famers. Duncan was rare in the modern era for playing all four years of college (and graduating) before entering the NBA draft in 1997. Garnett (1995) and Bryant (1996) were pioneers in the opposite direction: they went straight from high school to the NBA draft, something not seen since the mid 1970's.
They ushered in an era in which 39 high schoolers were drafted from 1995 through 2005. The NBA has since required that players be 19 years old and one year removed from their graduating high school class before entering the draft.
Of the 39, three have been elected to the Hall (Tracy McGrady was inducted in 2017). Two more, LeBron James (I won’t rehearse his accomlishments) and Dwight Howard (8-time all-NBA, multiple times Defensive Player of the Year) are certain to be inducted; Amar'e Stoudamire might be one day. Pick any NBA players at random, you wouldn't find that many Hall of Famers.
Notably, however, Garnett, Bryan, and McGrady are three of the first four high schoolers drafted. Jermaine O'Neal was drafted four spots after Bryant in 1996, and he was also a star player.
Their success likely encouraged more high schoolers to enter the draft. But of the 11 players drafted 1998-2001, only Rashard Lewis (2-time All-Star) Tyson Chandler (Defensive Player of the Year, starter on 2011 champion Mavericks) and DeShawn Stevenson (also on that Mavericks team) had much success.
Amar'e Stoudamire, a 5-time All-NBAer, was the only high schooler drafted in 2002. LeBron James was drafted in 2003 along with Kendrick Perkins and two others. Perkins was a starter on great Celtics and Thunder teams in the 00's and 10's.
Howard was among eight drafted in 2004. From that class, Shaun Livingston, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, and J.R. Smith also had careers of note.
The last draft class in which high schoolers were eligible, 2005, saw 9 taken. Andrew Bynum is a 2-time NBA champ. Monta Ellis averaged 17.8 points per game over 13 seasons. Lou Williams is 3-time 6th Man of the Year.
The following is how I would rank all the high schoolers drafted 1995-2005. Following their names is the year they were drafted and the pick with which they were taken. Note that those taken 31st or later were 2nd-round picks.
LeBron James 2003 (1)
Kobe Bryant 1996 (13)
Kevin Garnett 1995 (5)
Dwight Howard 2004 (1)
Tracy McGrady 1997 (9)
Amar'e Stoudamire 2002 (9)
Jermaine O'Neal 1996 (17)
Tyson Chandler 2001 (2)
Andrew Bynum 2005 (10)
Rashard Lewis 1998 (32)
Monta Ellis 2005 (40)
Al Jefferson 2004 (15)
Kendrick Perkins 2003 (27)
Josh Smith 2004 (17)
J.R. Smith 2004 (18)
Lou Williams 2005 (45)
Shaun Linvingston 2004 (4)
DeShawn Stevenson 2000 (23) 542 starts in 824 games in 13 seasons
Eddy Curry 2001 (4) 411 starts in 527 games over 11 seasons
Amir Johnson 2005 (56) 485 starts in 870 games over 14 seasons
Al Harrington 1998 (25) 445 starts in 981 games over 16 seasons
Kwame Brown 2001 (1) 281 starts in 607 games over 13 seasons
Martell Webster 2005 (6) 266 starts in 580 games over 10 seasons
Dorrell Wright 2004 (19) 222 starts in 549 games over 11 seasons,
C.J. Miles 2005 (34) 303 starts in 848 games over 15 seasons
Sebastian Telfair 2004 (13) 193 starts in 564 games over 11 seasons
Darius Miles 2000 (3) 190 starts in 446 games over 7 seasons
Andray Blatche 2005 (48) 191 starts in 564 games in 7 seasons
Gerald Green 2005 (18) 118 starts in 658 games over 12 seasons
Travis Outlaw 2001 (23) 98 starts in 622 games over 11 seasons
DeSagana Diop 2001 (8) 93 starts in 601 games over 12 seasons
Jonathan Bender 1999 (5) 28 starts in 262 games over 8 seasons
Robert Swift 2004 (12) 34 starts in 97 games over 4 seasons
Ndudi Edi 2001 (26) No starts in 19 games over two seasons
Leon Smith 1999 (29) No starts in 15 games over 2 season
James Lang 2003 (48) No starts in 11 games over one season
Korleone Young 1998 (40) No starts in 3 games over one season
Ousmane Cisse 2001 (46) Failed physical, did not play in NBA
Ricky Sanchez 2005 (35) Never played in the NBA
16 of the 39 were "lottery" picks, that is, they were taken among the first 14 in the year they were drafted. This includes all six of the best players. Nine were 2nd-round picks, including the bottom four.
Perhaps every player who skipped college and declared for the NBA draft thought they could be the next Kobe Bryant or Kevin Garnett. Only half a dozen were in that ballpark, but that doesn't mean the rest were wrong to skip college. 29 of the 39 had NBA careers of ten seasons or more, including five of the ten 2nd-round picks. Even if they weren't great, all but a few proved they could play in the NBA and managed to find work in the league for a long time.
I understand why the NBA ended the practice of drafting high schoolers. NBA teams wanted draftees to be more mature, physically and emotionally, before entering the league. But I'm not sure if a year or more in college has made anyone a better NBA player than they would have been coming straight out of high school.
Whether they enter the league at 18, 19, or 22, most NBA players are just average NBA players, and don't have the talent to be better.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.