How important is the defensive line?
Plus, an MVP Chase update
Image: Torsten Bolten
In this issue:
MVP Chase update after Week 13
How important is the defensive line?
The MVP Chase rewards strong individual performances in victories. I don’t care who has the most total yards, or most 100-yard games, or the most passing yards or touchdowns. Put those guys in the Pro Bowl and All-Pro teams. The MVP Chase focuses on the number of strong individual performances that contributed to actual wins.
That said, I did take a look at how the Top Ten in the MVP Chase are doing in the traditional stats.
Cook is second in rushing and fourth in yards from scrimmage.
McCaffrey is first in total yards from scrimmage.
Prescott is first in completions and second in both yards and touchdowns, and first in QBR.
Taylor is first in rushing and third in yards from scrimmage.
Smith-Njigba is first in receiving yards and seventh in yards from scrimmage.
Jahmyr Gibbs is fourth in rushing and fifth in yards from scrimmage.
Stafford is first in touchdown passes and a close second in passer rating.
Daniel Jones is fifth in passing yards and is falling in the MVP Chase after leading it for much of the season.
Josh Allen ranks around seventh to eleventh in several categories.
Drake Maye has finally entered my top ten. He’s first in passing yards and passer rating and fourth in QBR. As mentioned in my last update, his greater propensity to get sacked compared to other top quarterbacks has hurt his ranking; he’s given up 40 sacks, while Prescott and Stafford have each given up 17.
One might say the sacks aren’t all his fault (I’m not saying they are), that Maye should be higher on any MVP list, and that my MVP Chase formula doesn’t work. We have five more weeks to find out.
How important is the defensive line?
I can’t cite the podcast, podcast episode, or even the speaker with certainty, but I believe I heard Bill Barnwell suggest that, after the quarterback, the defensive line may be the most significant factor in winning the Super Bowl.
I decided to check that out with a brief survey. In the 55 seasons of the merged NFL, I selected 14 teams that won the Super Bowl in which the quarterback was a question mark at the time. Sometimes he was a backup pressed into service, sometimes he just hadn’t consistently demonstrated elite ability (even if he proved it later in his career), and sometimes (Unitas, Peyton Manning), their bodies were broken down.
To gauge how good these Super Bowl-winning defensive lines were, I looked at their rankings in sacks and in average yards allowed per run. (Linebackers also play a significant role in these stats, but they need the defensive line to dominate the line of scrimmage.)
The Combined Ranking (CR) mentioned below adds the two rankings; the “perfect” ranking number would be 2 (1st in sacks plus 1st against the run).
2017 Eagles. QB Nick Foles. The defensive line ranked 15th in sacks and 6th in yards per rush. CR: 21
2015 Broncos. QB Peyton Manning. The Bronco defense ranked 1st in sacks and 1st in yards per rush. CR: 1
2012 Ravens. QB Joe Flacco. The Ravens were 15th in sacks and 7th in yards per rush. CR: 22
2007 Giants. QB Eli Manning. The Giants were first in sacks and fourth in yards per rush. CR: 5
2002 Buccaneers. QB Brad Johnson. The Bucs were sixth in sacks and third in yards per rush. CR: 9
2000 Ravens. QB Trent Dilfer. This legendary defense was (surprisingly) just 22nd in sacks but first against the run. CR: 23
1991 Redskins. QB Mark Rypien. The defense was fourth in sacks and 11th against the run. CR: 15
1990 Giants. QB Jeff Hostetler. The Giants were only 24th in sacks (28 teams) and seventh against the run. CR: 31
1987 Redskins. QB Doug Williams. The team was fourth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 14
1986 Giants. QB Phil Simms. Giants were fourth in sacks and fifth against the run. CR: 9
1985 Bears. QB Jim McMahon. The legendary ‘85 Bears were third in sacks and sixth against the run. CR: 9
1980 Raiders. QB Jim Plunkett. The defense was third in sacks and first against the run. CR: 4
1974 Steelers. QB Terry Bradshaw. The defense was first in sacks and second against the run. CR: 3
1970 Colts. QB Johnny Unitas. The team was fifth in sacks and tenth against the run. CR: 15
Ten teams finished in the Top 6 in sacks. All teams finished in the Top 11 against the run.
I will likely consider these stats, in addition to QB stats, when making Super Bowl predictions as the playoffs start. Even if I doubt the quarterback, I might favor a team that is strong at rushing the passer and stopping the run.
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.