Here is my ranking of the undefeated and one-loss teams in the FBS Playoff Chase, in order of strength of resume at this stage. There are probably two-loss and even three-loss teams that might be ahead of some of these teams, at #9 or so. We'll address the viability of a two-loss team making the playoffs if chaos reigns in the next two weeks.
Georgia, 11-0
Ohio State 10-1
Notre Dame 10-1
Michigan 10-1
Cincinnati 11-0
Alabama 10-1
UTSA 11-0
Oklahoma State 10-1
Oklahoma 10-1
San Diego State 10-1
Louisiana 10-1
Houston 10-1
This is is similar to last week's, but what's of note is, that in my scoring system #2 thru #4 are all much closer to the top spot than they were a week ago, and not really because of anything they did.
Georgia's victory over Charlestown Southern last Saturday allowed them to catch up. That's because the first thing I look at is the total wins by a team's FBS opponents. Charleston Southern, however, is an FCS team.
Georgia was not alone in playing an FCS team this season. In fact, all but 15 of the 130 FBS schools scheduled an FCS opponent. There are valid reasons to schedule an FCS opponent, but I won't discuss here. But the FCS is a lower division and a victory over an FCS team is supposed to be easy.
Whatever benefits an FCS game may have, helping a team's strength of schedule isn't one of them. As a result, a playoff-contending team with an FCS game on its schedule must hope its 11-game FBS schedule is as tough as any team with a 12-game FBS schedule.
Of the twelve undefeated and one-loss FBS teams, three did not play an FCS team; Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan. They also happen to be ranked 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. Next week, the winner of Ohio State-Michigan is likely to overtake Georgia, who's playing 3-8 Georgia Tech.
(In my scoring system, Ohio State is actually tied with Georgia; I have Georgia ahead because it's undefeated. Notre Dame is one point behind, and Michigan is two points behind Notre Dame.)
The question is whether the Buckeyes, Irish, and Wolverines have an "unfair advantage" in scheduling only FBS teams: "Why couldn't they schedule an FCS team like the rest of us?".
Am I unfairly punishing the Georgias, Cincinattis, and Alabamas, who've played FCS schools? Am I over-rating Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan because they didn't?
I decided to take a look. I threw out the worst non-conference opponents of Ohio State and Michigan, and the worst opponent of the independent Notre Dame, pretending they all coasted to easy FCS victories instead.
Ohio State's worst opponent was Akron, who has one FBS victory.
Michigan scheduled two of the better MAC teams, but its big non-conference game was supposed to be against the PAC-12's Washington, who turned out to have the weakest record with four FBS victories.
Notre Dame's worst opponent was 2-win Navy.
If I took away those games, Ohio State would still be #2, and Notre Dame would still be #3. Michigan would fall from #4 to #5.
So let's throw away that idea. I refuse to punish Michigan for playing Washington and claim it would be fairer if they had played, say, Eastern Washington instead. That's insane.
Here are the upcoming games for all twelve teams.
Georgia, 11-0, against Georgia Tech, 3-8; already clinched spot in SEC Championship Game against Alabama.
Ohio State, 10-1, against Michigan, 10-1; Winner clinches spot in Big Ten Championship Game.
Notre Dame, 10-1, against Stanford, 3-8
Michigan, 10-1, against Ohio State, 10-1; Winner clinches spot in Big Ten Championship Game.
Cincinnati, 11-0, against East Carolina, 7-4; already clinched spot in AAC Championship Game against Houston.
Alabama, 10-1, against Auburn, 6-5; already clinched spot in SEC Championship Game.
UTSA, 11-0, against North Texas, 5-6; already clinched spot in C-USA Championship Game.
Oklahoma State, 10-1, against Oklahoma, 10-1; already clinched spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Oklahoma, 10-1, against Oklahoma State, 10-1; a victory will clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, which would be a rematch.
San Diego State, 10-1, against Boise State, 7-4; victory will clinch a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game.
Louisiana, 10-1, against Louisiana-Monroe, 4-7. Already clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Championship game (against Appalachian State, who is 9-2 as of this week.)
Houston, 10-1, against UConn, 1-10; already clinched spot in AAC Championship Game against Cincinnati.
Notre Dame, an Independent, won't play in a championship game. That means they won't play a thirteenth game. I wouldn't be surprised if they fall out of the top four, if not next week then the week after.
The Playoff Committee might have other thoughts, but I think my selections, based on objective criteria, will ultimately become their selections.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, subscribe and exchange value for value. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.
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