Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
The Playoff Chase formula has changed a little bit. It is still mostly weighted on a scale that balances a team's dominance (or lack thereof) and the average dominance of the teams they've faced. But I've added a new wrinkle.
To explain, let's take hypothetical Team A:
For opponents Team A has beaten, add up the total combined number of THEIR wins.
For opponents Team A has lost to, SUBTRACT the total combined number of THEIR losses.
This twist is mainly for later in the season. Let's say Team A is 11-1 and its only loss is to an undefeated team. Team B is also 11-1 and equals Team A in dominance rating, but Team B's only loss was to a 1-11 team. Surely Team A should be rated higher, and my inputs will reflect that.
Entering Week 5, Texas has beaten four opponents who themselves have won a combined 9 FBS games. That leads the nation and helps make them the #1 team in the Playoff Chase.
USC is also 4-0, but their opponents have combined to win just 3 FBS games. That's a reason they're way down, tied at #25, despite dominating most of their opponents. In contrast, Kansas State is 3-1, but the three opponents they've beaten have won a combined five games, and their only loss is to an undefeated team.
Here is this week's rankings.
Texas (4-0) 38.50
Washington (4-0) 37.75
Michigan (4-0) 37.50
Ohio State (4-0) 37.00
Notre Dame (4-1) 36.6
Duke (4-0) 36.50
North Carolina (4-0) 35.75
Penn Stae (4-0) 35.50
Oklahoma (4-0) 35.25
Miami (4-0) 35.00
Liberty (4-0) 32.25
Washington St (4-0) 32.25
Rutgers (3-1) 32.25
Oregon (4-0) 32.00
Missouri (4-0) 31.00
Utah (4-0) 30.50
Kansas St (3-1) 30.50
(T18) Alabama (3-1) 30.25
(T18) Wisconsin (3-1) 30.25
Ole Miss (3-1) 30.00
Colorado 29.75
Georgia (4-0) 28.75
Kentucky (4-0) 28.50
UCLA (3-1) 28.50
(T25) Maryland (4-0) 28.25
(T25) USC (4-0) 28.25
(No rankings before that: insufficient data)
About the Author
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.