CFB Playoff Selection reaction
And NFL MVP Chase Update
Image: Torsten Bolten
In this Issue:
College Football Playoff Selection reaction
NFL MVP Chase update
College Football Playoff Selection reaction
I was unable to produce the MVP Chase last week, and am overdue to post my thoughts about the College Football Playoff.
Eleven of the twelve teams I would have selected for the College Football Playoff were, in fact, selected. I had Notre Dame getting in, but Alabama was selected.
My process was data-driven: strength of victories, strength of losses, and margin of losses. Its purpose was to select who deserved to make the playoffs based on on-field results.
At the end of 2023, one-loss Alabama was selected over undefeated Florida State in that season’s four-team playoff, allegedly because Florida State wasn’t that good and wouldn’t have been competitive with their starting quarterback injured. Last year, Florida State was terrible (2-10), but beat Alabama in this season’s opener 31-17. The Seminoles, however, finished just 5-7. It was a terrible loss for Alabama, and had the Tide won that game but lost to a better opponent later in the season, I likely would have had the Tide in the playoffs. Or, if Florida State had been a better team that Alabama only narrowly lost to, Alabama might still have gotten in.
That this was an opening-game loss isn’t an excuse. And I find it hard to imagine that a school with any other name would get away with losing by double digits to the 13th-best team in the ACC. I find it ironic that two years ago, undefeated Florida State supposedly sucked, yet this year, when Florida State really did suck, Alabama was rewarded for only losing to them by two touchdowns.
As it is, however, the Committee could have done worse. 11 out of 12 isn’t bad.
NFL MVP Chase
Two weeks’ worth of games have passed sincemy last update. Matthew Stafford, who has been in the nationwide MVP discussion for most of the year, has finally become a strong contender in the MVP Chase as well.
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Contact James Leroy Wilson for writing, editing, research, and other work at jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com. Visit JL Cells for my non-sports writing.