And the NBA MVP Goes to...
It helps to show up and play.
Last week, I explained how NBA MVPs are selected:
Divide the number of victories a player played in by the number of total wins by the team, as a percentage (PW/TW x 100).
Add the number of actual wins he played in.
Add his Player Efficiency Ratio (PER)
For my personal selection for MVP, however, I would modify this a bit and add a fourth factor.
First, I may have over-weighted the first factor. Let's say Player A played in all 40 of his team's victories (100%) and Player B played in 38 of his team's 40 victories (95%). Player B's PER would have to be 5 points better than Player A's, if B would be ahead in the MVP rankings. That's a lot to overcome.
I would cut this in half in half. Instead of PW/TW X100, it would be PW/TW x 50. Player A would get 50 points for playing in all of his team's wins, Player B would get half of 95%, or 47.5 points.
I would also add a fourth factor, Minutes Per Game (MPG). This is a fair assessment of a player's value according to his own coaches. It could reflect depth on a team, or lack thereof. For instance, if Team A has a comfortable lead, the coach might rest his best player for the remainder of the game. For Team B, however, the same point margin might not be so comfortable because the coach doesn't trust his bench players, and the team's best player stays in the game.
Team A's best player might be better than Team B's best player, but the latter might be more valuable because he has to play more minutes for the team to succeed. And "Valuable" is right there in the name of the award. We're determining who was most impactful to his team's success in terms of wins, and time on the court certainly matters.
With this in mind, I would determine MVP like this:
50(PW/TW) + PW + PER + MPG
From the 20 teams in the playoffs, I selected the player with the highest PER on each team because it best represents the "best player" on the team, with two exceptions:
I selected Kyrie Irving over James Harden for the Nets because their PERs are virtually identical and Irving played several more games.
For the same reasons, I chose Terry Rozier of the Hornets over LeMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward.
I also checked Zion Williamson's numbers. He was 4th in the league in PER, and the only one of the Top 15 in PER to miss the playoffs. By the MVP formula, he would finish 13th, ahead of eight of the selected players from playoff teams, including Kyrie and Rozier. Many of the game's top players missed too many games, and therefore too many of their team's victories, to be viable MVP candidates.
Zion played in 29 of 31 Pelican victories. His PER was 27.1. His Minutes per game was 33.2:
50(29/31) +29+ 27.1 + 33.2 = 136.07
Here are the twelve players ahead of him.
12. Trae Young 50(36/41) + 36 +23.0 + 33.7 = 136.60
11. Bradley Beal 50(32/34) + 32 + 22.7 + 35.8 = 137.55
10. Jayson Tatum 50(34/36) + 34 + 21.3 + 35.8 = 138.32
9. Joel Embiid 50(39/49) + 39 +30.3 + 31.1 = 140.19
8. Damian Lillard 50(39/42) +39 + 25.6+35.8 = 144.44
7. Stephen Curry 50(37/39) + 37 + 26.3 + 34.2 = 144.93
6. Giannis Antentokounmpo 50(40/46) +40 + 29.2 + 33.0 = 145.67
5. Julius Randle (40/41) + 40 + 19.7 + 37.6 = 147.08
4. Luka Doncic 50(40/42) + 40 + 25.3 + 34.3 = 147.22
3. Chris Paul 50(49/51) + 21.4 + 31.4 = 149.83
2. Rudy Gobert 50(52/52) + 52 + 23.5 + 30.8 = 156.30
1. Nikola Jokic 50(47/47) + 47 + 31.3 + 34.6 = 162.90
I believe Jokic will be the MVP. The question is who rounds out the ballot, as voters have five names to fill.
That's when it becomes subjective.
I may be one the few who would vote Gobert 2nd. But, like Jokic, he had a hand in every victory for his team. On the All-NBA team, I'd have Gobert 3rd-Team Center behind Jokic and Embiid. But Embiid played just 70% of the season and in less than 80% of his team's victories. Gobert played in 71 of 72 games and all of the wins, propelling the Jazz to the league's best record. The MVP is about what was accomplished, not what "would have been accomplished" if this or that player stayed healthy. Embiid's injuries aren't Gobert's fault.
There is closer distance between #3 (Paul) and #8 (Lillard) than between Gobert and Paul. Everyone 3 through 8 has a good argument for a place on the ballot, because their teams would be lost without them. So now it's time for hair-splitting:
Lillard's Blazers went 3-2 without him; Luka's Mavs went 2-4 without him.
The Knicks needed Randle to play 71 games and lead the league in minutes to secure a 4-seed and home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. In contrast, Curry missed nine games and the Warriors managed eight-place and the play-in tournament.
If Giannis played 70 games like Paul, perhaps the Bucks would have won 51 games as the Suns did, or more. But he played just 61 games, and the Bucks were 6-5 (a playoff pace) without him.
Staying healthy and showing up to play has to be part of the MVP calculation, because it directly affects the number of wins. It's no surprise that the players in my Top 5 played at least 90% of the schedule.
It will be interesting to see the MVP voting results and how they match up with my rankings.
James Leroy Wilson writes from Nebraska. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter. If you find value in his articles, your support through Paypal helps keep him going. Permission to reprint is granted with attribution. You may contact him for your writing, editing, and research needs: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.