In the 2021-22 NBA season, the Phoenix Suns finished with a record of 64-18, by far the best in the league. Mikal Bridges played all 82 games for the team.
In my understanding of "Most Valuable Player," showing up to play is a big part of it; helping the team win is a big part of it. What I had conceived is a way to balance that equally with being an efficient or effective player.
The Hollinger Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a good generalization of the quality of a player. The leader in PER usually has a PER in the low 30's. The team with the best record usually wins 60+ games. I saw an opportunity to equally balance:
# of games won when the player played (GW)
The player's season-to-date PER
We can do this simply:
MVP Chase Points Total = GW/2 + PER
Bridges, for example, has a GW of 64, and a PER of 14.4. So his MVP score would be:
64/2 + 14.4, or 32 + 14.4, or 46.4
The PER, however, is designed for a rating of 15.0 to be the average every year, and although Bridges is a great defensive player, his 14.4 PER is below-average and is 104th in the league. An MVP would presumably be better than average in most statistical categories.
I haven't verified this, but I'm confident that all previous MVPs in the modern era had a PER of at least 20. I chose to evaluate MVP candidates from among them.
The NBA MVP Ballot allows five names to be voted on in order of preference. Here are my results. The first number is # of games won with the player divided by 2 (e.g., the Nuggets won 46 games with Jokic playing; divided by 2 that's 23), followed by PER and then the sum of the two numbers.
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, 23, 32.8, 55.8
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks, 22.5, 32.1, 54.6
Joel Embiid, 76ers, 22.5, 31.2, 53.7
Devin Booker, Suns, 28, 21.3, 49.3
(Tied): Luka Doncic, Mavericks, 22, 25.1, 47.3; Chris Paul, Suns, 26.5 20.8, 47.3
As Paul is the second player from the Suns on the list, and Doncic has a substantially higher PER, I would round out the ballot with Doncic
The race among the top 3 was super close. Had Giannis and Embiid played a few more games, either one could have grabbed it from Jokic. But Jokic, in carrying an undermanned team, actually set the record for PER while leading the Nuggets to the #6 seed. My MVP Chase formula tells me he's the MVP, and personally I think he deserves it.
The regular-season MVP Chase goes to Nicola Jokic. Congratulations, sir!
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase, Daily Miracles, The Daily Bible Chapter, and JL Cells. Thanks for your subscriptions and support!