Welcome to the MVP Chase, where I, James Leroy Wilson, rank players and teams using objective data.
Yesterday I debuted the 2023 NFL MVP Chase based on simple criteria I've been using for a few years:
A player earns an MVP Point if his team wins the game AND:
He (as a quarterback) had a passer rating over 100
OR
He (any position) had 100 or more yards from scrimmage.
But, as time permits this year I will collect data for a more compelling case for MVP.
The system I've been using was simple but I believe got to the heart of determining the league MVP. The more times a player has a great game in a victory, the stronger is his case for MVP. But I always wanted something more substantial; I just didn't have the time to sort through more data.
Since I posted on Thursday, however, I believe I might be able to do that.
For each game, I will look at the winning team. Then I will rank its top eight players using fantasypros scoring. I'll give 8 points to the team's fantasy leader, 7 to the next-highest, and so on.
It doesn't matter how many actual fantasy points they earn, only how they ranked on their own team. Perhaps in one game, the best fantasy player on the winning team had 33 fantasy points, but the best fantasy player on another winner had 15. They would each receive 8 MVP Chase points as they were each the "most valuable" player on their team.
Perhaps in the next victory, one of them will have the third-most fantasy points on his team. He would get 6 MVP Chase points and his total after two victories will be 14 MVP Chase points.
The best ball-handling players will tend to be the most productive on their team whether in a high-scoring offensive game or a defensive struggle. Their fantasy point ranking on their own team will reflect that.
After Week One, then, there must be 16 players in the MVP Chase lead: all tied at 8 MVP Chase Points each, and all because their team won and they had the top fantasy score among their teammates. Except, on some occasions, a team's defense and special teams (DST) led the team. They are designated as such.
After the second week, the number of leaders will shrink rapidly. In any case, here are the opening leaders of the Expanded MVP Chase.
8 MVP Points
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers
Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons, 8 points
Derek Carr, QB, Saints
Cowboys DST
Jake Elliott, K, Eagles
Jared Goff, QB, Lions
Sam Howell, QB, Commanders
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens, 8 points
Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
Jets DST
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars
Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns, 8 points
Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
James Leroy Wilson writes The MVP Chase (subscribe) and JL Cells (subscribe) and is a monthly columnist at Meer. Thank you for your subscriptions and support! You may contact James for writing, editing, research, and other work: jamesleroywilson-at-gmail.com.